Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

At national level, hospital admissions are rising more quickly again, following a week when the 7-day moving average was increasing more slowly.

Regional picture is key to understanding this - see below. 1/4 Image
The acceleration in the growth of hospital admissions means that our estimate of R has begun to rise again and is slightly above 1.1 at the last point we can estimate. 2/4 Image
The deaths picture has also worsened in recent days, with larger numbers announced Tues, Weds and today.

We’re now averaging over 240 deaths a day in English hospitals. It’s remarkable that we already know about 260 deaths from 9 Nov; more to be announced in comings days. 3/4 Image
Regionally we can see the NE and particularly the Midlands still growing whilst already at very high levels. The fall in the NW seems to have flattened in the last few days. London remains encouragingly flat, but there is still strong growth in the rest of the south. 4/4 END Image

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More from @COVID19actuary

14 Nov
The Sat update on England admissions and deaths, starting with a continued upswing in admissions. The 7 day MA is up 18% on the week, a week ago it was just 9%. This appears to be a national trend, and is broadly consistent with the infection trend recently reported by REACT. 1/4 Image
Consequently our estimate of R continues to rise, and is now approaching 1.2, after falling close to 1.0 a week ago. Was the dip last week due to half term, or maybe the recent increase is a result of last minute activity in anticipation of the second lockdown? 2/4 Image
The regional picture for admissions confirms an upswing everywhere in the last few days, even the NW which had been falling at around 10% per week. The four southerly regions all saw their highest 2nd wave day yet reported today, so this isn't just an issue for the north. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
The latest update on England admissions and deaths following the weekend catch-up of deaths. Admissions growth has slowed in the last few days, with the doubling time extending to around 3 weeks. Let's hope this slowdown is maintained in the coming days. 1/4
Similarly the increase in deaths has slowed from the doubling every 10 days we were seeing a week or so ago, once we adjust for estimated late reporting delays. Hopefully this will slow further in a week or so in line with the admissions figures above. 2/4
After a period of stability, our estimate of R has dipped a little to 1.2, consistent with the admissions slow down. It relates to mid Oct, so we should be starting to see some of the benefits of restrictions introduced around then, particularly in the North. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
Here’s a roundup of some of the material we have produced or highlighted during this extraordinary week.

1. A short thread from @john_actuary examining the @imperialcollege #REACT antibody study. Antibody prevalence is decreasing, which might imply falling immunity.
2. There was no Mortality Monitor from the CMI this week (though one is due this Tuesday) but @ActuaryByDay analysed the latest @ONS weekly death statistics noting that deaths are above the five-year average.
3. We published a bulletin from @john_actuary on Tuesday, looking at hospital admissions. He estimates that just under 1-in-5 COVID-19 admissions is acquired in the hospital setting. He also concludes that the vast majority of admissions are “from COVID” not just “with COVID”.
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
Admissions were out late yesterday, so a Sunday update instead of England hospital admissions & deaths. Admissions dipped today, possibly a hopeful sign, but we saw a similar dip 14 days ago, so it's too early to form any conclusions. The doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4 Image
Weekend deaths are always lower, but nevertheless there appears to be a slight reduction in growth, from around 10 days to 14. This would be broadly consistent with admissions growth 2 weeks ago. The moving average is now over 160, after adjusting for reporting lags. 2/4 Image
Our estimate of R continues to be very stable, and has been between 1.25 and 1.30 for 12 days now. Remember this is based on admissions and then working back to infection date, so relates to a period of between 2 and 3 weeks ago. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
How’s your Sunday going? Do you have enough reading material?

ICYMI - here is some of our group’s output from the week just gone.

1. We started the week with an exploration of the statistics and real life implications of #superspreading from @Sharpe_Actuary
2. Next @john_actuary examined Monday’s @ONS report on excess mortality at home that has been seen since the peak. He (and ONS) highlighted the crucial context that deaths overall have been no higher than usual (since the peak) so this just represents a shift between settings.
3. On Tuesday we shared the latest report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), part of @actuarynews.

They found that death rates in late Sept and early Oct were very similar to 2019. So the COVID-19 deaths were not yet translating in higher death rates overall.
Read 9 tweets
24 Oct
Our usual Saturday update of England hospital admissions and deaths, starting with admissions. The moving average has increased 31% in a week, down from 42% a week ago, representing an easing of the growth rate. Doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4
Sadly we've seen deaths exceed 100 per day this week, and the current doubling time of 10 days is broadly consistent with that for admissions about two weeks ago. We can expect these figures to rise further before hopefully the rate of growth starts to ease. 2/4
Our estimate of R continues to edge down in line with the fall in admissions growth. However, it is still around 1.3 which suggests numbers will continue to grow. This won't reflect the most recent restrictions, as there is a lag of around 2 weeks from infection to admission. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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