Thread by @Taniel

💥Cheri Beasley, North Carolina's Democratic Chief Justice, has taken the lead! By... 281 votes right now.

Boards convening today & counting mail & provisional ballots; more remains. Beasley's 1st lead since EN at least.

Big stakes for civil rights: theappeal.org/politicalrepor…

I believe Durham has now reported all its remaining mail-in ballots, which is what swung the lead. And I'll add that it wouldn't have been unreasonable for Beasley to expect to net more votes from this batch. Very much up in the air here.

Beasley now leads by 672 votes.

That's a lead of 0.01% statewide, practically a landslide.

Orange County just reported its remaining mail-in ballots as well, which has lifted her. (Again tho, she netted a bit less than she may have been expected.) Mail all done in the Triangle.

Cheri Beasley's lead now sits at 1,303 votes. (That's more than 0.02%, believe it or not.)

Roughly 7,000 ballots have been added since my last tweet, including provisionals from Mecklenburg. Newby has some batches left to close the gap, but approaching the finish line.

Wow, red Davidson County's final (?) ballots has come in VERY big for Republicans. And Cheri Beasley's lead is now down to 44 votes.

44 votes.

And Paul Newby, the Republican, is now leading by 141 votes.

All boards are meeting today to finalize their provisionals and final mail-in ballots, which is why there's a sudden roller-coaster. And hard to know just what's left. We'll know much more in coming hours.

Newby (R) now leads by 341 votes.

There are ballots left in blue counties, most notably in Guilford. But there are also a dozen smaller counties, quite overwhelmingly GOP, that haven't reported any updates since November 3rd, so there's still more room for Newby.

I CAN'T DEAL WITH THIS RACE.

The margin is now back down to 66 votes statewide (for Newby).

(This is due to Beasley doing very well in the (final?) New Hanover batch.)

FIVE VOTES.

OUT OF 5.2 MILLION.

Counties are reporting their final canvass every few minutes. Beasley took a narrow lead for a bit; and now Newby is back ahead... by 15 votes.

What stands out: 12 counties have reported nothing since Election Night. Among them, blue Guilford & red Union.

Heavily red Rutheford County & Randolph County have sent Newby's lead surging to... 358 ballots.

Those were among the biggest red counties left (but a few more remain).

30 counties still have *some* ballots left; but that can range from a lot to just a handful of provisionals.

Two blue counties, Mecklenburg & Bertie, & red Stokes just reported final canvass, & barely budged numbers. (Mecklenburg had already reported its provs this morning.) Newby up 361 ballots.

21 counties still haven't finalized canvass.

Beasley hopes rest in big win in Guilford.

Since this is coming down to individual ballots, there are 69 ballots in blue Durham that have already been counted but are subject to a challenge & may be removed. See thread.

Also: Newby has filed "protests" in several blue counties, incl. Durham.

https://twitter.com/jojot_wilkie/status/1327290730562400257

UNION COUNTY is in: This was THE big batch of ballots left from a red county (they hadn't reported since Nov. 3). Batch went 55/45 R (less than county so far: 65/35).

It puts Newby up 463 votes.

Enough ballots left for Dems in Guilford **IF** they break as blue as county vote.

What's up with Guilford Coutny? Besides the roughly 2,200 mail-in ballots that haven't reported yet, the county is deciding whether to count provisional ballots. And many are being rejected (as is ussualy the case), with some pushback like here:

https://twitter.com/Triad_City_Beat/status/1327354810761404418

A reminder that millions of citizens are stripped of the right to vote via the criminal legal system.

In North Carolina, this affects 2.5% of Black adults, & 0.8% of other NCians.

With plenty of confusion too as to people's status.

https://twitter.com/Triad_City_Beat/status/1327349892835053568

Updates? Beasley nets votes out of small Duplin, a red county that hadn't updated since Nov. 3 (had Dem-skewing mail left). Blue Wake had a very small batch of provisionals left (now done).

Now: Newby (R) up 350.

Waiting on Guilford. Also Brunswick & Buncombe.

Oh, @gino_nuzzolillo flags Brunswick's board shared its final results (not yet fed into state system). Newby netted 120. Quite a bit at this stage. But may also be the final big red shoe to drop.

So Newby (R) up 470.

Down to Guilford (& Buncombe, & maybe Durham, provisionals)

I hope some people out there care about this election, otherwise this thread must be making me seem a bit strange.

But if you don't care about it, I'd invite you to check out the story linked to in the first tweet of the thread!

OK, list of what's out: Guilford is biggest county with no update yet. 2,200 mail, plus provisional. Smaller red Columbus & Perquiman haven't updated since Nov. 3. Also Pasquotan.

And Buncombe, Durham, Rockingham, & Robeson (tied in this race) haven't updated for days.

If you're waiting for an update... we've learned nothing for a while.

You'd think the boards of the counties remaining have gone home, but that's at least not true in Guilford, which is the big one left, per @Triad_City_Beat.

Newby up 472. Could go any way here. Very tight.

Unexpected boost for Newby: blue Buncome Co. reported its ≈300 provisional ballots, & they broke for the Republican. Not a lot. But that removes one of the only Dem counties left.

Newby now up 498. Guilford would need to close gap *&* offset some remmaining red.

Cheri Beasley (D) back ahead.

By 99 votes, out of 5.2 mill statewide.

She netted 644 votes out of the big county with a lot left, Guilford (larger margin than county so far, fewer ballots than may have been).

Will it be enough? Columbus, Perquiman, Robeson w ballots left.

2 of 3 counties left that had not reported since Nov. 3 are in. Beasley +43 votes in light-blue Pasquotank; Newby +42 in red Columbus. (So tight.)

Beasley (D) up 100.

Left:
—red & small Perquimans
—many provisionals in Robeson
[—maybe tiny change in Durham?]
—unknown?
—recount

Tough for Beasley (D): Her lead is down to 36 votes.

And due to Durham! (This follows a bad update for Dems in another blue county, Buncombe, earlier.)

What's left: 600-700 provisionals in Robeson; the update in small & red Perquimans; final canvass in a few red counties.

Folks, I'm sorry to say this: I think this is pretty much it until tomorrow, if not until Monday. Robeson is not reporting its provisionals (which are the key to the race, & likelier than not to boost Newby) until then.

Whatever happens there, this is heading to a recount.

Another step to completion: Perquimans (small & red), the last county to not have reported anything since Nov. 3, dropped an update. Newby only netted 1 vote.

Beasley (D) up 35 votes...

What’s left: roughly 700 provisionals in Robson. Final adjustments from a few red counties.