Whenever someone tells you that Turkey and Russia are somehow competing for influence or against each other...just say:

1. S-400s
2. Turksteam pipeline.

And then begin the conversation again with "Astana process"...

They are partitioning, cooperating...not in opposition.
Countries that compete don't buy weapons systems from one another, build pipelines rapidly and divide other countries like Syria, Libya, Nagorna-Karabkah. That's just not how competition works. For competition see Iran-Israel, US-China tensions, Pakistan-India, etc...
Now...does China buy US Patriot missiles? No.
Do the US and China build pipelines together? No.
Do they carve up countries with peacekeepers and deals? No.

Now do the same for Israel and Iran, Pakistan and India, etc, etc...

#think
Today the authoritarian powers; Iran, Turkey, Russia, China, are working together generally in opposition to western powers or aspects of the US global system that once was. This is how it works. They want a multi-polar world, eroding US hegemony. Period.

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More from @sfrantzman

13 Nov
One of the interesting foreign policy discussions in the US is the sense that the US should stop dealing with the Middle East or that the Middle East is a kind of waste of time, and doesn’t matter “like it used to”...this is fatigue from conflicts but not good policy thought
Replies include claims that the region no longer matter due to US not needing oil or relying on energy needs in region. But the region is important for many reasons, because it links Europe, Asia and Africa, due to migration, extremism, non-governed spaces, conflicts, influence
Look at the fact that China, Russia and other countries think this region is important, the idea that the US will just neglect a part of the world where it has had huge military bases and influence over decades is strange...it's more about fatigue than a reading of history.
Read 10 tweets
12 Nov
After Israel created a "multi-dimensional" unit...now: The "Momentum" multi-year plan and the Victory operational concept, emphasize the need for force-design around offensive-led efforts....The Multi-Domain Strike Division is a significant opportunity."
"... to promote offensive capabilities as part of the maneuver across all arenas while combining air, ground, naval and cyber firepower."

Back in July: jpost.com/israel-news/id…
"The Division's goal is to serve as the focal headquarters for force design, development of knowledge and combat theory, training, exercises, focusing on multi-domain strike capabilities across all echelons and levels of the IDF, from headquarters to the front." #Israel
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Thread: Those who believe the destructive war against poor Armenia was about hurting Iran have bought into the narrative of Ankara entirely...there is zero evidence Iran was harmed by a war that basically harmed Armenians and Azeris...if anything Iran gained again.
The theory that all the minority groups in the Middle East have to be attacked by Ankara and its extremists and that somehow destroying Afrin...Armenia...Sinjar...hurts Iran is built on nonsense and gratuitous support for violence against innocent people.
Notice how the Ankara regime media never critiques Kataib Hezbollah, Hezbollah, Badr or Houthis...none of Iran’s real allies. We are constantly being lied to that Ankara “opposes Iran”...it doesn’t. It is allied with Iran and Russia.
Read 17 tweets
10 Nov
Two bits of #Israeli defense news today: "The United States Air Force has selected Elbit Systems of America to compete for future task orders within the service’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) Indefinite-Delivery/Indefinite-Quantity (ID/IQ) contract."
"The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO), in the Directorate of Defense R&D (DDR&D), of the Israel Ministry of Defense, delivered to the U.S. Army the first Multi-Mission Radars (MMR) manufactured by ELTA Systems, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)."
Why these two details are interesting is the illustration of the close US-Israel defense relationship, one has to think of this as an ECOSYSTEM where Israel increasingly is a part of and fits into the US defense industry through procurement, partnerships and supplying key items
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
If you want to understand Putin's foreign policy, you have to go back, at least in part, to a time when I was doing a study abroad in Moscow in the summer of 1999; and it also determines how he saw the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan criss jpost.com/international/…
I studied abroad in Mexico, Italy and Russia...later in Israel where I got my PhD. Definitely the White Nights in Petersburg were a highlight in 1999. And a formative time, I witnessed, for Russia.
I never met Putin...but I did meet Chief Rabbi Berl Lazar who has insights; sethfrantzman.com/2014/05/11/int…
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
It seems logical only on the face of it.

A. If Iran's regime was so peaceful, then no one would need security at all...but they do because Iran's regime has an agenda.

B. The regime's arrogance of "forever"...ummm it's a regime...regimes come and go, read history... Image
This feels like a bit of mafia "you better pay us for security...don't rely on others...or bad things might happen" aspect to it...threatening...under the guise of "better future"...from a regime that daily threatens Israel and others.
The arrogance of Zarif, who was educated in the US...the country the regime complains about...to pretend he is Iran and "forever"...he only has his Twitter account to say this and his job because of the regime...that's not "forever"...
Read 9 tweets

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