Ultra-simplified #Bitcoin educational content, #3

(a brief thread)
As time goes on and Bitcoin's network effect grows, educational content gets better, UX/UI of onramps and services get simpler, it gets easier for people to "get it"

Just like with the Internet in the 90s, social media, mobile, etc.

Same chart, now not in log format
If we think about how equipped everyone in the world is to understand that Bitcoin is on a trajectory to become the world's preferred money / dominant SoV... we would have a bell curve distribution, shown here
The people who have understood Bitcoin to-date are part of the extreme edges of the normal distribution of humanity, for various reasons (e.g., software engineering, previous study of Austrian economics or libertarianism, life experiences, distrust of authority, curiosity, luck)
The implication here is two-fold:

1. It will get easier and easier for everyone to understand and see the value of Bitcoin as a primary unit of account
2. We have not yet reached the bulk of the bell curve, but it is fast approaching

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More from @Croesus_BTC

14 Nov
Thread:

Dollars, gold, #Bitcoin - which is the best for storing your hard earned money?

----

All forms of money grow in total value as the global economy grows. What differs is how they do it.

The U.S. prints as many dollars as needed to achieve 2% inflation. Image
The only way to do this is to pull supply out to the right far enough that it deflates the purchasing power of all existing dollars by ~2%. (For your own good!)

Since 2010, this has meant an average supply increase of ~8% per year. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 Image
Gold's supply is not actively managed. However, the free market efforts of gold mining adds ~2% to total supply every year. Image
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
THREAD:

How Early Are We?

As a starting point, here is the analysis I put forward previously on this topic:
However, as @johnkvallis pointed out to me, there are different levels of #Bitcoin adoption, and each level is at a different point in the adoption curve.

When we clearly segment these levels of Bitcoin adoption, it helps illuminate just how early it still is for Bitcoin.
For our purposes, let's segment Bitcoin adopters into four buckets:

1. Casual Dabblers (toe dippers)
2. 1% Allocators (ankle deep)
3. Significant Believers (waist high)
4. Bitcoin Maximalists (gone snorkeling)
Read 23 tweets
23 Oct
THREAD:

#Bitcoin halvings cause a supply shock. The slow accumulation of this supply shortage drives a bull market in the ensuing ~18 months.

2012 and 2016 halving -> 2013 and 2017 mania. 2020 halving on track for same.

This thread attempts to visualize those mechanics.
The halving causes new supply to be cut in half, but net demand remains the same. From this point on, a supply shortage accumulates.

Note: areas shown to scale for May 2020 halving. Assumed "available for sale" supply = UTXOs moved in prior month, aka 5% of circulating supply.
Supply shortage slowly accumulates. Net demand is moving twice as much supply into long-term HODLing as mining is creating each month.

Supply "available for sale" on exchanges shrinking, but accumulated impact still small.
Read 11 tweets
11 Jun
1) Everyone is familiar with @100trillionUSD S2F model. Critics recoil because it seems to scale too rapidly. What they're forgetting is an intangible amplifying force that I wanted to ballpark quantify: the normal distribution of technology adopters.
2) Some very rough assumptions:
a. Bitcoin as preferred money / savings technology has total addressable market of anyone with $10k+ wealth (2.2B, source: statista.com/statistics/203…). Impoverished communities will also use BTC, but focused on TAM of those with wealth to store
2b. Current penetration is 10M. This is a rough estimate of how many people have $1,000+ stored in BTC, based on 3M addresses with >0.1BTC bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riches…, and accounting for balances on exchange/GBTC ownership/etc.
Read 16 tweets

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