Thread by @pmdfoster

The #Brexit talks enter yet another weekend with no obvious signs of progress in sight - what's going on? Will the #Cummings departure lead to the 'cave in' many are assuming?

Quick pre-weekend thread /1

First the talks. Summed up by convos with two sources from this week.

EU side: "UK not moving where it should if it wants a deal ...

UK side: "They just want us to do all the moving..."

We are stuck on a philosophical/substantive divide /2

The EU side says that it HAS move, a long way, and not just on 'dynamic alignment' on State Aid and ECJ oversight - but that movement is still off the baseline set in the Political Declaration of October 2019, which talked about "robust" guarantees on free/fair competition /3

But the UK side argues that effectively it has re-set that baseline, by opting for a Canada-style deal (paring away offensive UK economic interests) and that the EU is simply not listening/getting that he UK wants OUT of the EU regulator orbit /4

So UK negotiators are said to be "not engaging" on really basic elements of the EU's level-playing field demands...some part so the regime they want to be 'non-binding' according to some sources. There is renewed muttering on the EU side of the UK seeking "unicorns" again /5

If that's giving you flashbacks, you are not alone.

But the EU is as adamant as the UK side that the other side is "not getting it" - citing the fact that since 2017 the EU has been explicitly saying the UK is NOT Canada. /6

It's "size and proximity" means that it cannot get 'zero tariff' access to EU single market of 460m people without agreeing to those conditions, including so-called "ratchet clauses" that from EU perspective are needed to keep a "living "agreement that moves with the times /7

Given the crummy market access this putative FTA offers the UK says that Brussels and EU capitals are "over-playing their hand"...

....which brings us to the next part. Are they? And will @BorisJohnson fold his cards? /8

@BorisJohnson As to the first question, in trade negs you play the hand you've got, and the EU has a very strong one. It doesn't believe Johnson can really walk or that the UK can just ignore the imbalance in trade and the 'gravitational reality' of the trade relationship /9

@BorisJohnson So arguably the EU is not over-playing it's hand - just playing it, herding Mr Johnson into what @AntonSpisak has elegantly described as the "elephant trap". Because as the days tick by, a tough choice is coming... /10

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak Johnson can choose a skinny FTA (that he can claim as great victory but won't feel like it come March 2021 I suspect) with level-playing field guarantees that continue to suck the UK into the EU gravitational maw....OR walk away, with all the agro that entails. Eeesh. /11

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak The assumption is that #Cummings departure means a "cave in" - as @Nigel_Farage has already said, goading Johnson - but as @GeorgeWParker reports that may not be correct. Indeed it may have the opposite effect, Johnson may need to show mettle /12

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@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak @Nigel_Farage @GeorgeWParker As officials like to say - recalling Johnson's Chequers resignation - he's always been emotionally attached to the clean break (a function perhaps of not exactly doing the detail) but there it is, nonetheless. And David Frost and Oliver Lewis are equally attached /13

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak @Nigel_Farage @GeorgeWParker Recall that that in September the "moderate voices" - the Goves and Sunaks, we hear - failed to head off the UK Internal Market bill headlong tilt at Brussels. Will they do so this time, if Johnson decides he cannot stomach what Brexiteers will see as an unequal treaty?/14

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak @Nigel_Farage @GeorgeWParker Good question. Smart money in Westminster says they will - party in no mood for a cliff-dive at the moment and the Public lead to believe that Brexit is already 'done' after the #Brexit elections...but (see above) the EU are likely to make the terms punitive. /15

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak @Nigel_Farage @GeorgeWParker There will an argument for refusing a deal that binds the UK's hands while swaddling us in EU red tape - after all the entire point of this negotiation as been to priortise sovereignty over economy. Easier to blame the mess on the ideological EU? /16

@BorisJohnson @AntonSpisak @Nigel_Farage @GeorgeWParker Or perhaps - a third way - Johnson 'agrees to disagree' and refuses the deal but does so in a way that doesn't completely blow up relations - we step back from breaking international law segue into a new negotiations on WTO terms. A long shot, but one to consider. /17

Of course, all of this is pretty bonkers....the government "only wants Canada"...but why?

Why does it want to put back trading relations to 1992? Why does it want to complete 270m customs declarations? Why does it want no domestic state aid regulator? /18

All those basic Qs have got lost in the mists of Brexit time...some vague ideas about buccaneering Britain and the belief the EU is about to fall over, but really it's just a gut call that we'll "prosper mightily" when free. The UK is doing an extraordinary thing to itself/19

The next week or 10 days will tell. It was always a tough call which way it would go, the turmoil in No 10 makes it even tougher to predict now, so I'll not bother. Time for a glass. Crazy fortnight ahead. Good weekend all. ENDS