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Georgina Wright Profile picture
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13 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
How will #EU react to Cumming’s departure? My hunch: status quo & caution. Short thread:
1. Status quo: Cumming’s departure won’t suddenly lead to a softening of EU state aid position in favour of the UK’s. EU wants a state aid compromise that stands the test of time - not just now but in 5/10 years time. Tonight’s development do not change that.
2. Caution: Cumming’s departure only matters if it gives PM more room for manoeuvre to find a Brexit compromise. But PM makes that call & there is no guarantee of that yet. END.
3. My broader point here is that Cumming's departure doesn't change the EU's calculation. EU does not think a compromise is now suddenly more likely. Just like EU didn't believe Biden victory wd suddenly see No.10 embracing a Brexit deal. It's more complicated than that.

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More from @GeorginaEWright

Georgina Wright Profile picture
16 Nov
Lots of talk (& confusion) today about EU ratification & #Brexit. All you need to know in this short thread.
1. Should you care about EU ratification? Yes. Brexit talks ongoing – but they're only part of the challenge. UK & EU also need time to vote & get ready for change.
2. Who in EU votes on UK-EU FTA? Depends on content of the deal. If:
(i) “EU-only” (areas of EU law only): then approval is needed at EU level (Council & EU Parliament)
(ii) “mixed agreement” (areas of EU & member-state law, like aviation): then approval at EU level *and* in MS
Read 13 tweets
Georgina Wright Profile picture
7 Nov
A Biden victory is good for the UK & Global Britain. Why? Quick thread:
1. Stable foreign policy outlook: Biden will want to break with an America first foreign policy. Recommit US to multilateral system, fight against climate change & building resilience. UK shares all these priorities.
2. *But* UK must present US with a plan: Biden’s immediate focus will be domestic (bring US together, tackle Covid). Many in Washington have been surprised at how “internally-focused” the UK has been for past 4 yrs with Brexit. They now want to know what Britain will do globally
Read 7 tweets
Georgina Wright Profile picture
15 Sep
This misreads the EU's position and the protocol. Thread:
1. Purpose: protocol designed to prevent a hard border between Ireland and NI: the only way to do that was to agree a UK-wide backstop (which PM rejected) OR ensure greater alignment between NI and Ireland & move admin procedures to the Irish Sea. PM negotiated the latter
2. Length: The protocol will apply even if there is an FTA – it’s just that certain provisions could be superseded (i.e. improved) by FTA. This is why FTA talks are so important. And why any attempt to unpick WA cd seriously jeopardise them.
Read 5 tweets
Georgina Wright Profile picture
12 Sep
Sorry to be a pedant but joint committee role isn’t to identity which GB products are at risk; rather it agrees which products are *NOT* at risk of flowing into EU market. If JC can’t agree, then *all* GB products entering NI will be deemed at risk (with some exceptions)
Sounds the same, but it’s not. UK worried that JC won’t come to an agreement. But as @BBCkatyaadler points out, EU want a deal & prepared to move. EU understands UK asks. Talks ongoing (and until this wk, were going well on the whole). No agreement yet. Just way negotiations go
Meanwhile other aspects of protocol cd be addressed (and therefore requirements lessened) in FTA. But EU has said it will only agree to FTA if *UK* sticks to its commitments under withdrawal agreement.
Read 4 tweets
Georgina Wright Profile picture
30 Jun
True that not all previous national security advisers (NSA) were "steeped in the security world" but they had worked on security files before taking over the post:
1. Before becoming NSA, @LordRickettsP was chairman of joint intelligence committee, UK permanent representative to NATO and Foreign Office PUS.

2. Before becoming NSA, Sir Kim Darroch was DG for Europe at FCO and Permanent Rep to the EU. Wd have involved security files.
3. Before becoming NSA, Sir Mark Lyall Grant was UK Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Would have involved a number of security files.

4. Before becoming NSA, @marksedwill was FCO Director for Afghanistan & Pakistan and had worked in Afghanistan.
Read 4 tweets
Georgina Wright Profile picture
7 Apr
Interesting. Want to know how the EU feels about it? Check out my latest for @instituteforgov:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/eu-are-co…
1. Inevitable: Most in EU think some form of extension is now inevitable. PM is in intensive care, chief negotiators are self-isolating. It is not clear negotiations will happen virtually - and lots of worry that businesses won't be able to adapt both to COVID & new UK-EU regime.
2. Process: it will be up to the UK-EU joint committee (JC) to decide terms (length, ££ contributions to EU budget, etc) by 1 July. EU must also secure member states' approval *before* it agrees to anything in the joint committee. Talks in JC and in EU27 won't be straightforward.
Read 6 tweets

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