Thread by @GeorginaEWright

Lots of talk (& confusion) today about EU ratification & #Brexit. All you need to know in this short thread.

1. Should you care about EU ratification? Yes. Brexit talks ongoing – but they're only part of the challenge. UK & EU also need time to vote & get ready for change.

2. Who in EU votes on UK-EU FTA? Depends on content of the deal. If:
(i) “EU-only” (areas of EU law only): then approval is needed at EU level (Council & EU Parliament)
(ii) “mixed agreement” (areas of EU & member-state law, like aviation): then approval at EU level *and* in MS

3. What about UK-EU FTA? V likely to be mixed agreement. Member states cd decide to limit ratification to EU level. But seems unlikely: they won’t want to upset their nat/regional parliaments by taking vote away from them. BUT fortunately, MS vote can take place after 2020.

[3bis. UK-EU deal cd be "EU-only". For example, EU-Japan deal was considered EU-only even though it was a mixed agreement; but then again, Commission considered EU-Canada deal an "EU only" deal but MS pushed for it to be a mixed agreement. So who knows].

4. Step-by-step EU vote guide:
1. Council (member states) “sign” agreement (basically say whether they like it)
2. EP votes
3. Council gives consent
4. Member-state ratification (but that can take place AFTER 2020). Deal is “provisionally” applied pending full ratification.

4. But does EP need to vote before 31 Dec? As @StevePeers notes, Council (member states) cd decide to provisionally apply UK-EU deal in absence of EU parliament vote – but they won’t want to.

5. EU Parliament (EP) vote: Ideally, EP would vote in last plenary of this year (w/c 14 Dec). EP cd be recalled for “extraordinary sitting” before end of the yr to vote on UK-EU deal; but no-one wants that at Xmas time.

7. Council vote: No vote as such. But they won’t formally give consent to UK-EU deal until EU Parliament has voted.

8. Member state vote (if required): Ratification can take place after 2020. Council can decide to provisionally apply agreement in areas of EU law pending full ratification. As @StevePeers notes, political declaration already mentions possibility of provisional application.

9. But provisional application (PA) not straightforward:
1. Need to discuss it inside EU & with UK.
2. Not a permanent state either (almost collapsed for EU-Canada when Belgian reg parliament threatened to veto deal).
3. Can be withdrawn unilaterally.

10. For more information on EU ratification:

pp. 8 -10: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/i…

And here instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/fut…

On and @instituteforgov will be publishing an explainer on what needs to happen on UK side (courtesy of @ThimontJack & @jameskkane). Watch this space.

As promised, all you need to know about UK ratification here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/fut…