I don't expect Florida's COVID deaths to trend toward zero any time soon; we will probably see at least 40-50/day (similar to a normal FL flu season).
When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.
1/4
As the months go on and the number of tests increases, that probability gets VERY high, and it only takes one positive.
It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.
2/4
Examples from Florida:
- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab
- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease
3/4
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.
For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed
2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).
The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.
The Gainesville Sun is running a disparaging piece on me in tomorrow's print edition. This thread summarizes my response, or you can read the whole thing with links to references here 👇
Nathan Crabbe, Opinions Editor at the Gainesville Sun, emailed me: “I’ve been following the coverage of your analysis of COVID-19 death certificates. I was planning to write my Sunday column about that and Gov. DeSantis’ other steps to raise questions about COVID reporting.”
2/13
Note that he wasn’t at all interested in my article about COVID-19 death certificates; he was interested in the COVERAGE of it. That “coverage” was mainly a hit piece in the Miami Herald
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.
For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed
2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).
The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.
Big Media is going after me and Kyle Lamb, presumably to push a false narrative that any further reopenings in Florida are based on twisting or suppressing data.
1/4
Florida's COVID data reporting is probably the best in the country, which is why we know that nothing catastrophic happened after reopening 6.5 weeks ago.
2/4
Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are ticking up everywhere, as they do in flu season every year. This year there's no flu, just COVID.
The same thing is happening in states that are locked down with mask mandates.
Masks have not prevented these increases anywhere.
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