Florida Deaths - 11/15/20

Florida reported a net of 29 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 22 different days, going back to August 15.

Changes by month: August (-1), September (-1), October (+17-1), November (+15)

#RationalGround

1/8
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 47
Maximum age: 95
90% are 65 or older

4/8
All deaths to date:

5/8
Additions and deletions by date:

11/13 - 3
11/11 - 2
11/10 - 1
11/9 - 3
11/7 - 2
11/5 - 1
11/4 - 2
11/3 - 1
10/31 - 2
10/29 - 1
10/27 - 2
10/25 - 1
10/23 - 1
10/20 - 1
10/19 - 1
10/18 - 1
10/17 - 3
10/16 - 3
10/15 - 1
10/9 - removed 1
9/5 - removed 1
8/15 - removed 1

6/8
The numbers above are not totals by day; they're increments added today. See the chart in the first tweet for totals.

7/8
Sources: Florida deaths by day: fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html…

My spreadsheet to track changes: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

8/8

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

16 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/16/20

Florida reported 41 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 19 different days, going back to October 16.

Changes by month: October (+24), November (+17)

#RationalGround

1/8 Image
This chart shows more detail for recent weeks:

2/8 Image
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov
I don't expect Florida's COVID deaths to trend toward zero any time soon; we will probably see at least 40-50/day (similar to a normal FL flu season).

When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.

1/4
As the months go on and the number of tests increases, that probability gets VERY high, and it only takes one positive.

It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.

2/4
Examples from Florida:

- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab

- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease

3/4
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
The Gainesville Sun is running a disparaging piece on me in tomorrow's print edition. This thread summarizes my response, or you can read the whole thing with links to references here 👇

1/13

alachuachronicle.com/legacy-media-o…
Nathan Crabbe, Opinions Editor at the Gainesville Sun, emailed me: “I’ve been following the coverage of your analysis of COVID-19 death certificates. I was planning to write my Sunday column about that and Gov. DeSantis’ other steps to raise questions about COVID reporting.”
2/13
Note that he wasn’t at all interested in my article about COVID-19 death certificates; he was interested in the COVERAGE of it. That “coverage” was mainly a hit piece in the Miami Herald

3/13

alachuachronicle.com/death-certific…
Read 13 tweets
14 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/14/20

Florida reported a net of 44 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 27 different days, going back to July 25.

Changes by month: July (+1-1), August (+1-1), October (+14), November (+32-2)

#RationalGround

1/7
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/13/20

Florida reported 73 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to October 15.

Changes by month: October (+26), November (+47)

#RationalGround

1/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 79
Minimum age: 35
Maximum age: 98
88% are 65 or older

3/7
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/12/20

Florida reported a net of 72 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 25 different days, going back to October 12.

Changes by month: October (+43), November (+29)

#RationalGround

1/6 Image
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/6 Image
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 28
Maximum age: 105
87% are 65 or older

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets

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