I will repeat a point I have made before. When I look at the momentum in COVID cases in Europe (proxy for Rt if you will) the most important thing to monitor now is whether 'lockdown lite' can work.
We know that full-blown lockdown will will work. But it is more interesting that the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark are getting case growth down notably by embarking on lockdown lite (shops remain open, restaurants are restricted (but not shut), mask mandate in public places)
The Netherlands has had negative (smoothed) case growth for 11 days. Denmark has had negative case growth for a few days. Germany is close to zero case growth (Rt=1) on the smoothed measure. But it growth actually turned negative on the non-smoothed daily metric, today.
That lockdown lite can work was the lesson from the US 2nd wave in the summer. There was doubt about this was still the case with worse weather (Rt is negatively linked to temp). But the evidence from Northern Europe suggests a positive conclusion still.
The key is to act early. Acting early can make the difference between lighter measures being sufficient and the need for more dramatic intervention (to avoid hospital exhaustion). This is a simple and intuitive lesson. But it is being learnt the had way, again.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The WSJ has a good overview of the record number of US COVID cases recorded in the latest daily data. They discuss the various factors contributing. But they do not mention weather/temperature. I think that is a mistake... @JenCalfas@bysarahkrouse
There is a big debate about the European 2nd wave, and whether it is serious or not. And it is surely hard to look at cases alone, since the testing quantity is totally different. I think looking at the dynamic CFRs is very informative....
= mini-THREAD
The table here shows Case Fatality Rates over time for several European countries, using recent deaths vs lagged cases.
It shows that you cannot really talk about severity in a uniform sense.
Some countries, such as France, Finland, Sweden, Norway an Denmark have stable an very low fatality rates (<1%) even with cases ticking up.
I will do what everybody knows is very dangerous on twitter: comment on Sweden...
Cases have accelerated sharply over the last few weeks, from 200/day to 700/day (could have broader implications, with weather possibly a key variable = THREAD).
I am not trying to be alarmist, very few people seem to be getting seriously ill, as evidenced by low ICU admissions (although there is a slight uptick, and obviously lags at play)
But it raises the question. WHY? (are cases spiking)
Sweden has been 'open' for a while (that is the reason everybody is so focused on Sweden's alternative model)
Relatedly, mobility indicators have been pretty stable over the last few months.
I started using twitter in earnest this year, and today I reached 10K followers. I do not know all of you personally, but I do know many of you professionally, and I really respect your views/input/content etc. Some observations on twitter in general (=THREAD)
I used to be skeptical of twitter. In part because I wanted to keep research content for my clients only, and because some of the stuff I look at is very niche. But then came the COVID shock, and suddenly everybody was interested & there was a lot of new/important data to crunch
The COVID shock showed the power of data, to a huge audience. I had to express my views in public, especially back in Q1, when there were so many basic misunderstandings.
Lots of focus on Nov 3, and how the world may change after that day. But what we do know is that WFH, or at least a hybrid model, will be with us well beyond the election day. So we do need to plan… (= THREAD)
As I mentioned in previous thread, the initial excitement about wfh being possible, and in some narrow areas even an advantage, is giving way to a form of fatigue, reduced motivation, and a test to social networking / teamwork structures, over time.
Hence, we have been thinking hard about what can be done (in the context of managing @ExanteData) to ‘stay sane’ and avoid the most obvious pitfalls of working from home in the longer-run. Three main points on this....