I will repeat a point I have made before. When I look at the momentum in COVID cases in Europe (proxy for Rt if you will) the most important thing to monitor now is whether 'lockdown lite' can work.
https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1327567144180199425
We know that full-blown lockdown will will work. But it is more interesting that the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark are getting case growth down notably by embarking on lockdown lite (shops remain open, restaurants are restricted (but not shut), mask mandate in public places)
The Netherlands has had negative (smoothed) case growth for 11 days. Denmark has had negative case growth for a few days. Germany is close to zero case growth (Rt=1) on the smoothed measure. But it growth actually turned negative on the non-smoothed daily metric, today. 
That lockdown lite can work was the lesson from the US 2nd wave in the summer. There was doubt about this was still the case with worse weather (Rt is negatively linked to temp). But the evidence from Northern Europe suggests a positive conclusion still.
https://twitter.com/jnordvig/status/1325487625604624387
The key is to act early. Acting early can make the difference between lighter measures being sufficient and the need for more dramatic intervention (to avoid hospital exhaustion). This is a simple and intuitive lesson. But it is being learnt the had way, again.
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