⚠️FOLKS—Do **NOT** gather indoors for the holidays 🦃. Just too darn risky. You shouldn’t gather at all to be safest, but if you must gather, please do it only *outside* by a fire 🔥 pit or under heat lamps w/ blankets with distance. Damnit, the coronavirus is airborne people! 🧵
2) Let me be clear:

#COVID19 is airborne & require masks.

Masks work. Premium masks (surgical, KN95, KF94, N95+) work even better, especially if others refuse any mask.

Ventilation & filtration (HEPA or MERV13+) key.

Masks save lives.
3) VENTILATION is key. Both ventilation and masks needed to reduce risk indoors. But most buildings not ventilated well enough. Hence don’t do indoors for holiday parties.
4) we need to both mask and disperse aerosols quickly. Key is ventilation. Japan assumed it was airborne from the very beginning. But most indoor environments unable to ventilate well enough to have turnover every 5-10 minutes. #COVID19
5) What if one tests before visiting? Testing isn’t fool proof for capturing all virus especially if exposed very recently & early in illness. Quarantining for 2 weeks & testing everyday maybe, but we don’t have enough. Difficult because so much of Covid is among silent carriers.
6) this polls says we are going to hell...
7) If this is what happened after Canadian Thanksgiving in October... and Canada has much much lower baseline than US now... then our Thanksgiving and Xmas will be so screwed.

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More from @DrEricDing

17 Nov
Sobering—“Within a few weeks, COVID-19 will be the single leading cause of death on a daily basis in the United States” once we hit 2000 deaths a day. #COVID19
2) US epidemic. Not going so well:

➡️ 8 US states had more new cases/capita than any country

➡️ If US States were countries: 15 of the top 20 worst hit would be US States.

But still no mask mandates is ~40% of all states.

(Figures by my FAS team. HT @euromaestro) #COVID19 Image
3) And I agree that #COVID19 could be likely the largest mass casualty event on US soil. Though one could argue the European invasion of North America that killed 9/10 Native Americans might be close.
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
BREAKING—Sweden 🇸🇪 imposing further bans on public events. Prime Minister: "It's going to get worse. I'll say it again. It's going to get worse. Take responsibility to stop the spread of infection. Don't have dinners. Don't have parties. Cancel.” #COVID19 thelocal.se/20201116/break…
2) This is a dramatic shift in tone from Sweden before. Sweden epidemic surge is just too hot now. Higher than its neighbors, despite previous predictions of greater herd immunity. Didn’t pan out. Image
3) here was Sweden’s bold and arrogant proclamation previously. 🤔 ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
16 Nov
WORRISOME—#COVID19 mutation becomes more concerning. The coronavirus can mutate swiftly in one person’s body.

New case study: #SARSCoV2 “resurged again & again in the body of an infected man, eventually killing him while showing fast-paced evolution”. 🧵
nature.com/articles/d4158… Image
2) doctors “followed the course of #COVID19 in a 45-year-old man with autoimmune disorder, who was on immunosuppressants.”

➡️ Roughly 40 days after he first tested positive, follow-up tests indicated that virus was dwindling — but it surged back, *despite antiviral treatment*.
3) “The man’s infection subsided and then returned 2x more before he died, five months after his first #COVID19 diagnosis.

“Genomic 🧬 analysis showed that the man had not been infected multiple times. Instead, the virus had lingered and **quickly mutated in his body**.”
Read 9 tweets
16 Nov
BREAKING—Moderna just announced its experimental coronavirus vaccine is nearly 95% effective at preventing illness, including severe cases, in preliminary analysis. And of 11 observed severe cases, all were in the placebo group. Positive news. #COVID19 washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11…
2) Moderna’s vaccine is being co-developed with Fauci’s NIAID institute, and being tested in 30,000 people. Of the 95 cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, 90 were in the group that received the placebo.
3) “ There were 11 severe cases reported — all in people who received the placebo. With cases of covid-19 confined almost exclusively to trial participants receiving a placebo, that sends a strong signal that the vaccine is effective at thwarting the virus.
Read 7 tweets
16 Nov
Oh hell.

📌38% of U.S. residents say they plan to gather in groups of >=10 people this holiday season.

📌Nearly 33% said they would not require friends or family to wear masks at Thanksgiving gatherings

📌25% would not practice social distancing. thehill.com/homenews/news/…
2) We are gonna have this happen after Thanksgiving. Huge parties, and deaths among those who didn’t even attend the original party. None of the 7 who died went to this Maine wedding. forbes.com/sites/victoria…
3) this is why I’m begging everyone—don’t gather. Or only do it outside. Please folks.
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
My god—illegal crowded “fight club” called RUMBLE IN THE BRONX still taking place. Sheriffs shut it down but it still happening—200 people yesterday shoulder to shoulder indoors. Yes, a goddamn fight club in middle of pandemic. #COVID19 nytimes.com/2020/11/15/nyr…
2) “Sheriff’s deputies broke up the unlicensed fight club, known as “Rumble in the Bronx,” around 11:15 p.m. Saturday. Many of those crowding inside were drinking, smoking hookah and not wearing masks, the authorities said.”
3) “The leader of the club, Michael J. Roman, 32, and nine others were arrested and charged with unlawful assembly, health and alcohol code violations and participating in a prohibited combative sport. They were also each fined $15,000.”
Read 5 tweets

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