BREAKING—Moderna just announced its experimental coronavirus vaccine is nearly 95% effective at preventing illness, including severe cases, in preliminary analysis. And of 11 observed severe cases, all were in the placebo group. Positive news. #COVID19washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11…
2) Moderna’s vaccine is being co-developed with Fauci’s NIAID institute, and being tested in 30,000 people. Of the 95 cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, 90 were in the group that received the placebo.
3) “ There were 11 severe cases reported — all in people who received the placebo. With cases of covid-19 confined almost exclusively to trial participants receiving a placebo, that sends a strong signal that the vaccine is effective at thwarting the virus.
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4) The fact that only 5 cases occurred in immunized (vs 90 in placebo) is huge. And that 0 severe among immunized so far, compared to all 11 in placebo, bodes well. But it’s a 30,000 person trial. It needs much longer followup.
5) BUT... before we get too excited... read this thread 🧵 on two other new studies on #SARSCoV2 mutations:
6) notably in the second study... researchers found a new mutation that could hinder neutralizing antibodies, as well as inhibit the monoclonal antibodies drugs (ie possible affect down the road Regeneron’s REGN-COV2 and Eli Lily’s bamlanivimab drugs).
7) today’s Moderna vaccine press release here. We need primary data report. Press release doesn’t say the allocation of adverse events by group yet. investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
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📍BEST RAPID ANTIGEN TEST. This is the super awesome, very accurate, cheap $5, rapid antigen Abbott PanBio #COVID19 test used to find active infectious virus (& recommended by the renowned @michaelmina_lab).
Sobering—“Within a few weeks, COVID-19 will be the single leading cause of death on a daily basis in the United States” once we hit 2000 deaths a day. #COVID19
2) US epidemic. Not going so well:
➡️ 8 US states had more new cases/capita than any country
➡️ If US States were countries: 15 of the top 20 worst hit would be US States.
3) And I agree that #COVID19 could be likely the largest mass casualty event on US soil. Though one could argue the European invasion of North America that killed 9/10 Native Americans might be close.
BREAKING—Sweden 🇸🇪 imposing further bans on public events. Prime Minister: "It's going to get worse. I'll say it again. It's going to get worse. Take responsibility to stop the spread of infection. Don't have dinners. Don't have parties. Cancel.” #COVID19thelocal.se/20201116/break…
2) This is a dramatic shift in tone from Sweden before. Sweden epidemic surge is just too hot now. Higher than its neighbors, despite previous predictions of greater herd immunity. Didn’t pan out.
3) here was Sweden’s bold and arrogant proclamation previously. 🤔
WORRISOME—#COVID19 mutation becomes more concerning. The coronavirus can mutate swiftly in one person’s body.
New case study: #SARSCoV2 “resurged again & again in the body of an infected man, eventually killing him while showing fast-paced evolution”. 🧵 nature.com/articles/d4158…
2) doctors “followed the course of #COVID19 in a 45-year-old man with autoimmune disorder, who was on immunosuppressants.”
➡️ Roughly 40 days after he first tested positive, follow-up tests indicated that virus was dwindling — but it surged back, *despite antiviral treatment*.
3) “The man’s infection subsided and then returned 2x more before he died, five months after his first #COVID19 diagnosis.
“Genomic 🧬 analysis showed that the man had not been infected multiple times. Instead, the virus had lingered and **quickly mutated in his body**.”
2) We are gonna have this happen after Thanksgiving. Huge parties, and deaths among those who didn’t even attend the original party. None of the 7 who died went to this Maine wedding. forbes.com/sites/victoria…
3) this is why I’m begging everyone—don’t gather. Or only do it outside. Please folks.
⚠️FOLKS—Do **NOT** gather indoors for the holidays 🦃. Just too darn risky. You shouldn’t gather at all to be safest, but if you must gather, please do it only *outside* by a fire 🔥 pit or under heat lamps w/ blankets with distance. Damnit, the coronavirus is airborne people! 🧵
Masks work. Premium masks (surgical, KN95, KF94, N95+) work even better, especially if others refuse any mask.
Ventilation & filtration (HEPA or MERV13+) key.
Masks save lives.
3) VENTILATION is key. Both ventilation and masks needed to reduce risk indoors. But most buildings not ventilated well enough. Hence don’t do indoors for holiday parties.