The SEC has five commissioners. Three (Clayton, Roisman & Lee) have a history of voting against Bitcoin ETFs. Peirce is pro-bitcoin. Crenshaw is new and her stance is unclear.
With Clayton stepping down, the big question is if Biden will appoint a pro-bitcoin commissioner.
If either Gensler or Brummer were to be appointed, the odds of having a bitcoin ETF approved in the first 1-2 years of Biden's presidency would increase sharply.
Some crypto natives believe a bitcoin ETF would not be bullish for $BTC. They are wrong.
This is the last time the SEC rejected a bitcoin ETF. Only Peirce opposed rejecting it. SEC agency proceedings are very informative and tell you what the SEC is looking for 👇
Michael Saylor revived Microstratregy by effectively turning it into a Bitcoin hedge fund. Prior to that Microstratregy was a quasi dead tech company. He did so knowingly. Saylor job is now promoting bitcoin. He is pumping his bags.
Paul Tudor Jones is a brilliant macro speculator.
Michael Saylor is a brilliant game theory operator.
Not the same thing.
Effective shilling in large scale (relative to market cap) increases the odds of bubble formation. Saw it in 2017 with bitcoin, and see it recurrently with altcoins, where influencers take positions, shill them, and later dump on the masses.
For perspective, this analyst is a big fan of moon targets. Here's his earlier take on gold and silver (from July - a week after the breakout).
This kind of technical analysis is of little value. There is no edge in guessing targets so far in time with TA. All we know is that price is likely to continue going up, and a lot.
But readers loves this. What matters here is Citi's clients being exposed to the bitcoin moon.
Fact that coronavirus has been "over-rated" does not make it a hoax. Corona is a big deal, just not as bad as we thought. Chart shows people with COVID in hospitals (chart not per capita).
Countries have been actively preparing since March. Resources available to deal with the pandemic have risen dramatically. Chart shows the number of ICU beds globally.
Increased resources represents on of the reasons for case fatality rates collapsing.
Biden is not President-elect until states cast their votes (Dec/14) and congress counts the votes (Jan/6) OR Trump concedes. Trump's odds of turning the situation around via the courts are extraordinarily low, but he has not yet conceded.
Was hoping for a dip as $BTC & $ETH had finally gotten frothy in the last 36H (chart shows $BTC basis).
Increased BTC & ETH exposure and opened YFI REN ZEC & KP3R longs. This is my trading stack. I don't trade $BTC spot anymore, just hold it. That bullish I am.
Expecting a strong week and expect alt betas back >1. See this small correction as healthy.
Bitcoin is trading election results. It is now a macro asset. It responds to macro events. Trends ensuing from elections have long staying power. Best to ignore resistance levels and be patient. If it corrects, too bad, very likely it will be only temporary. Opinion not advice.
The key $BTC driver until Jan/5 will likely be the Georgia Senate election run-off, that would determine if Democrats get to control the senate. If they do, hello massive spending and currency debasament. If they don't, we get a stronger dollar. Bitcoin is trading that.
I think Trump's contesting of the elections will represent noise as far as markets are concerned. For those who disagree, this here likely is an excellent spot to sell some $BTC. That won't be me.