Thread by @ProfColinDavis

This correction is better late than never, but I fear the misreporting had a very negative impact on Bristol. Throughout October, as our Covid numbers went up, people compared these numbers with those reported at Bristol Uni, and concluded that growth was restricted to students.

https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1328440516527140865

At the time I tried repeatedly to warn people that this was a misreading of the data, and that cases were growing outside the university community.

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1317490708350197767?s=20

However, the dominant narrative was that the numbers reflected students.

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1319999655703445504?s=20

The dodgy numbers led to conclusions like this.

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1316626829088874496?s=20

When I suggested Bristol needed more restrictions to keep cases in check, the standard response was that you have to look where the cases are, and they're in students (this convo is just an example; it was typical of the accepted narrative at the time).

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1317052951207301120?s=20

To be fair, I see that the ever reliable @TristanCorkPost was aware of the issue and posed a question about it to our director of public health, but it doesn't seem like she responded (perhaps she was working on her messaging for students at the time).

https://twitter.com/TristanCorkPost/status/1316046207890780160?s=20

Not that it ever made sense to separate students from the city community if which they're part. Those of us who talk to students, and know how they earn money, could see that this was a dangerous misapprehension.

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1315832944624365569?s=20

Meanwhile, cases in Bristol continued to go up.

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1319813459962376192?s=20

Now we're seeing very large numbers of cases in places like Bishopsworth (1,163 cases per 100,000 people!) and Barton Hill and Fishponds -- I doubt there are many UoB students who have even visited these suburbs. bristolpost.co.uk/news/suburb-br…

And inevitably, hospitalisations in the southwest have increased (especially in Bristol), so that we now have more Covid patients in hospital than we did at the peak of the first wave. This was avoidable.

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1328413325949100035?s=20

My point is this: Data are important, and understanding the data is critical. Having a good story ("Bristol cases are just students", "Numbers are very low in the south west") is nice, but it shouldn't get in the way of a careful appreciation and investigation of the data.