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20 Nov, 11 tweets, 4 min read
This was not sudden.

I’ve commented on this article already, but I can’t help venting about the supposed “mystery of Bristol's soaring Covid-19 infection rate”.

There’s nothing “sudden” about it for those who’ve been paying attention.
Over 2 months ago it was possible to see exponential growth in Bristol in the NHS Pathways data:
And the exponential growth in positive cases in Bristol was very clear over a month ago:
And strangely, badging our response Tier 1+ & introducing a few extra Covid marshalls didn’t stem the growth, and it was soon apparent that south west hospitalisations were on a similar trajectory to that which the north had followed several weeks earlier.
Not *exactly* the same trajectory, because the south west (largely driven by Bristol) was growing faster than the north west had.
When I told the local paper that Bristol’s response had been far too complacent, it wasn't because I like criticising those who are doing a tough job (honestly!)
It was because this has been a slow motion car crash -- the very opposite of “sudden”.
By the beginning of November my frustration may have led me to be slightly intemperate, or at least rather more *strident*. But I had been expressing concern about what was happening in Bristol for a couple of months.
I've recently ranted about specific misconceptions that delayed proper consideration of what was happening in Bristol.
Now, obviously, there were others in Bristol who did a much better job trying to sound the alarm (though with the same limited success). My pal/colleague Gary Foster warned for months about the likely consequences of bringing uni students back to Bristol.
And now, of course, Gary and his wife have both tested positive. (Let's hope they both recover rapidly).
So please forgive me for saying this one more time, and then I’ll shut up.

THIS. WAS. NOT. SUDDEN.

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More from @ProfColinDavis

Colin Davis Profile picture
19 Nov
Today @BristolCouncil reports 2,252 positive cases from 13,659 tests over the past 7 days. That's a test positivity rate of 16.5%. New York city just closed all their public schools because their positivity rate exceeded 3% (I understand that the WHO recommends a 5% threshold).
Mayor Cuomo takes a strong line: "the decision isn’t just about a school, it’s about a school in an intensely infected community, with a family that’s infected and a candy store that has a high infection rate, on a bus route that has a high infection rate".
It's a striking difference from the "open at all costs" mantra in the UK. independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
Read 5 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
17 Nov
This correction is better late than never, but I fear the misreporting had a very negative impact on Bristol. Throughout October, as our Covid numbers went up, people compared these numbers with those reported at Bristol Uni, and concluded that growth was restricted to students.
At the time I tried repeatedly to warn people that this was a misreading of the data, and that cases were growing outside the university community.
However, the dominant narrative was that the numbers reflected students.
Read 11 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
18 Oct
(THREAD) Here is my understanding of the UK's Covid situation, and why we need a circuit breaker NOW.
Whether we call it a circuit breaker or a lockdown, some dramatic cessation of normal activity is inevitable fairly soon. If we just carry on at the present rate, we should expect to be up to around 2000 deaths a day by the end of the year.
In fact, that’s probably optimistic, as the collapse of a number of local hospital systems by that point will mean a greatly increased case fatality rate and/or an increase in ordinarily preventable non-COVID deaths. It’s hard to predict exactly when it’ll happen, but ...
Read 18 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
30 Sep
At today’s press briefing, Chris #Whitty asserted that rates of #COVID19 are not increasing in school-age children, based on a graph showing the rate of test positivity has not increased in the 5-10 or 11-14 year old age groups. 1/n
However, the test positivity rate isn’t very illuminating. We know there are other viruses in circulation that have symptoms that overlap with COVID. The test positivity rate conflates the increase in COVID cases with the increase in these other viruses. 2/n
It would be of interest to look at the rate of increase of positive cases across age groups (I’ve not seen these data). However, these data would also be problematic to interpret, because:

a) Maybe 40% of infected children are asymptomatic, and won’t be tested; and ... 3/n
Read 15 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
20 Sep
Text on the left is from UK government guidance to higher education. Text on the right is from UK government guidance to schools (updated 17 Sept). Why the difference? Is it something to do with the magic protective bubbles they have in schools? @Parents_Utd @ConcernedofBri1 ImageImage
Here's a good illustration of the magic bubbles that are apparently going to minimise transmission (except in practice many of the bubbles will have a hundred or more individuals).
And here's why masks are necessary in indoor spaces (including schools).
Read 5 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
17 Sep
Seeing as the UK #testing system is broken, one can examine NHS Pathways data (digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs…) which report 111, 999 and online assessments categorised as potential #COVID_19. Here are data from Bristol and NE Somerset. Current rate: doubling every 7 days. @Bristol_C19 Image
Here are data from SW London (doubling every six days): Image
Here are data from Hertfordshire @Mike_Page (doubling every seven days): Image
Read 5 tweets

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