Today @BristolCouncil reports 2,252 positive cases from 13,659 tests over the past 7 days. That's a test positivity rate of 16.5%. New York city just closed all their public schools because their positivity rate exceeded 3% (I understand that the WHO recommends a 5% threshold).
Mayor Cuomo takes a strong line: "the decision isn’t just about a school, it’s about a school in an intensely infected community, with a family that’s infected and a candy store that has a high infection rate, on a bus route that has a high infection rate".
Perhaps the difference has something to do with the fact that New York City has had over 24,000 coronavirus deaths, and the pandemic is the deadliest disaster by death toll in the history of the city. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_d…
Apologies, Cuomo is the Governor of New York state, not the Mayor of NYC (that's Bill de Blasio).
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This correction is better late than never, but I fear the misreporting had a very negative impact on Bristol. Throughout October, as our Covid numbers went up, people compared these numbers with those reported at Bristol Uni, and concluded that growth was restricted to students.
(THREAD) Here is my understanding of the UK's Covid situation, and why we need a circuit breaker NOW.
Whether we call it a circuit breaker or a lockdown, some dramatic cessation of normal activity is inevitable fairly soon. If we just carry on at the present rate, we should expect to be up to around 2000 deaths a day by the end of the year.
In fact, that’s probably optimistic, as the collapse of a number of local hospital systems by that point will mean a greatly increased case fatality rate and/or an increase in ordinarily preventable non-COVID deaths. It’s hard to predict exactly when it’ll happen, but ...
At today’s press briefing, Chris #Whitty asserted that rates of #COVID19 are not increasing in school-age children, based on a graph showing the rate of test positivity has not increased in the 5-10 or 11-14 year old age groups. 1/n
However, the test positivity rate isn’t very illuminating. We know there are other viruses in circulation that have symptoms that overlap with COVID. The test positivity rate conflates the increase in COVID cases with the increase in these other viruses. 2/n
It would be of interest to look at the rate of increase of positive cases across age groups (I’ve not seen these data). However, these data would also be problematic to interpret, because:
a) Maybe 40% of infected children are asymptomatic, and won’t be tested; and ... 3/n
Text on the left is from UK government guidance to higher education. Text on the right is from UK government guidance to schools (updated 17 Sept). Why the difference? Is it something to do with the magic protective bubbles they have in schools? @Parents_Utd@ConcernedofBri1
Here's a good illustration of the magic bubbles that are apparently going to minimise transmission (except in practice many of the bubbles will have a hundred or more individuals).
Seeing as the UK #testing system is broken, one can examine NHS Pathways data (digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs…) which report 111, 999 and online assessments categorised as potential #COVID_19. Here are data from Bristol and NE Somerset. Current rate: doubling every 7 days. @Bristol_C19
Here are data from SW London (doubling every six days):
Here are data from Hertfordshire @Mike_Page (doubling every seven days):