Much speculation (quelle surprise) as we hear EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is expected to brief representatives of the 27 member states on Friday early morning .. Is a deal in the offing? Could it be announced this weekend? Early next week? #Brexit /1
Reality is, it could have been announced yesterday or a month or two ago. The main 3 sticking points (fish, governance, competition rules) have been the same since these talks began. Each side know compromises are needed... But whether to make them and who moves first ? /2
That’s what we’ve been waiting for. And everything is linked. Remember ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ ? Of course EU coastal states eg NL and France know they need to compromise on rights to fish in UK waters but don’t want to budge till gov shows flexibility /3
On competition rules. EU won’t offer tariff + quota-free access to the single market to a big competitor on its doorstep without competition regulations in place and a means to reliably enforce them. EU also wants to be clear the government will remove/won’t re-instate clauses /4
In its internal market bill that contradict the Irish Protocol signed by Boris Johnson and EU leaders last year. /5
Once compromises both sides will make are clear to each other, then the if/when/how of announcing deal comes down to choreography. Both sides have to come away being able to sell this as a ‘win’. The PR around deal announcement will be particularly important for Downing Street /6
With U.K. leaving the single market and customs union, the deal will be thin and will involve considerable red tape and costs for businesses. To be clear: in these last days of talks, the government choice is not between soft or hard #Brexit That ship has sailed /7
The UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union. The government’s choice now is between a hard Brexit with a deal or no deal with the EU at all /8
Again it must be stressed that whatever happens now before the end of the transition period, this is no way will be the end of EU-U.K. relations discussions. One immediate example is financial services. That’s not part of these negotiations. Or pet travel .. /9
Those discussions will inevitably be smoother if this deal is now agreed between the two sides. As will practicalities concerning the flow of goods from GB to Northern Ireland /10
So the mood music around talks may suddenly be sounding more positive again but we await news whether - on those tough political compromises - the U.K. and EU have simultaneously held their nose and jumped .. /11

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Katya Adler

Katya Adler Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BBCkatyaadler

19 Nov
EU-UK post #Brexit trade talks will continue despite the positive #coronavirus test result for a member of EU negotiating team. That individual, those in direct contact including chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier will self isolate but /1
Negotiations during pandemic have long been a mix of in-person and on-screen negotiations so - I’m briefed - ‘this shouldn’t affect talks too much’ PLUS EU-side insist that ‘technical negotiations have gone as far as can at this stage. It’s now time for political decisions’ /2
Brussels looks to Downing Street now. EU view is: if/when the PM takes the decision that he wants this deal and is willing to make compromises (as EU admits it must too-eg on fish) THEN, I’m told the details to close deal can be ‘sorted in a matter of days’ /3
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
EU leaders hold a summit by videoconference today to discuss #covid19 and the EU budget + recovery fund crisis (see below). #Brexit not officially on agenda but leaders expect an update on trade talks from European Commission President. Ursula von der Leyen /1
Mood is sombre on all three fronts in EU circles. On Brexit some member states are pushing to boost no deal planning with negotiations still stuck on some of the toughest issues. This could be attempt to exert more pressure on U.K. Equally no deal is still a real possibility /2
Hungary and Poland insist that a new mechanism in the EU budget - linking adherence to the rule of law to receiving funds - must be removed. This veto also threatens the EU’s eagerly-awaited covid19 recovery fund. /3
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov
Here follows a cautionary tale or two: Brexit agreements and the EU #coronavirus recovery fund - that illustrate the dangers of fudging contentious issues under pressure to seal a deal ../1
Once upon a time (not very long ago) EU leaders imagined they’d take a look at a newly-agreed post #Brexit trade deal during a Video-conference on Thurs. Instead negotiators are still wrangling over key issues and the EU is in crisis over its budget + coronavirus recovery Fund /2
Hungary +Poland are blocking the painstakingly constructed new EU budget and much-needed recovery fund in protest at a mechanism allowing the EU to cut off funds to member states found to be breaking the rule of law in a way linked to the EU budget (..) /2
Read 9 tweets
12 Nov
EU diplomats sounding pessimistic about EU-UK negotiations. “Two weeks ago it seemed more positive. Now the only thing that’s moving is time” according to one well-placed source #Brexit /1
Suggestion by one diplomat that no deal might be useful “to clear the air” between U.K. and EU at this stage. Otherwise, he said, relations would be tense “from day one” after deal signed as both sides so far apart on common standards argument /2
EU still insists UK trying to get unrivalled access to single market while wanting to diverge as much as possibile on standards/regulations while U.K. blames EU for continuing to want to tie it to Brussels’ and not accepting post #Brexit reality /3
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Has UK really slowed down trade talks with EU until #USElectionResults become crystal clear? No, says UK. We don’t get that impression, says EU. Yet sources in Brussels insist the UK did put the brakes on intensive negotiations this week. So what is going on? #Brexit /1
As always, it depends who you speak to. EU diplomats wonder aloud whether No10 is hedging its bets on the best (or least worst) timing to make concessions necessary to agree a trade deal with EU. Brussels can see the difficulties the PM already faces over Lockdown2 with own MPs/2
EU voices muse whether the PM is waiting till all backs against the wall time-wise before clinching the deal. For domestic political reasons. « Boris Johnson is certainly not personally involved in haggling over herring or individual fishing issues » remarked one EU diplomat /3
Read 7 tweets
4 Nov
Germany‘s Economy Minister and France‘s Europe Minister separately observe that Europe cant wait for its fate to be decided by politics in US. Saying that 4 years of Trump presidency have shown Europe it needs to determine own path when comes to economy, climate, tech and more/1
Clearly they know Europe stronger with US by its side eg on China, Iran, climate. Their argument esp tricky when comes to security . Europe has looked to US to have its back in security terms since WW2. Having Trump in White House has led Europeans to doubt that assumption /2
EU attempts to create own defence force are fraught with countless difficulties: practical, political, logistic Trump isn’t first US President to call on Europeans to spend more on Defence but Europeans fear if Trump returns to office he might weaken or destroy NATO altogether./3
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!