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Isaac Saul Profile picture
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16 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
If the Trump campaign was confident in its ability to overturn the vote in Wisconsin with an audit or recount, this would be a no-brainer. They would have paid the fee last week. The fact they haven't (and probably won't) is one of the strongest indicators yet ab their position.
They're going for it!
NARRATOR: It'll be in the counties with a lot of Democrats!
The point is not to find fraud. It's not even to overturn the election. It's to create enough questions in enough Democratic counties to delay certification, buy more time or rile up the base. That's it.

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More from @Ike_Saul

Isaac Saul Profile picture
19 Nov
1/ There are basically 5 phases of fraud allegations and Trump defeat that I see. We're somewhere between Phase 3 and Phase 4. Here is how I'd break it down:

Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
2/ Phase 2: After losing the election, reframe every single thing you can find that even has a whiff of peculiarity as widespread, massive, election changing voter fraud.

This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
3/ Phase 3: Try to offload conspiracies from Twitter and Facebook into the court system, and fail miserably (we’re just about done this phase).

Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
Read 6 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
18 Nov
FWIW, at this rate, I would bet good money we don't see any crucial swing states delay the certification of their vote — even if one or two more counties go rogue. In all the states that matter, certification looks nearly guaranteed by the deadline. I'll update if that changes.
And the reason I'm confident is the same: states are not going to avoid certifying unless there are allegations of fraud that get traction. So far, we haven't even come close to that. Most of the Trump lawsuits aren't even alleging fraud. That hasn't changed at all in 2 weeks.
Both Republicans and Democrats that matter in the states that matter have not even so much at hinted at a delay in certifying the vote because responsible people hold those positions and know the election hasn't been compromised. At worst, we see more recounts like in Georgia.
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
17 Nov
The state board isn't going to follow suit, but the Trump campaign's baseless claims of a fraudulent election have polluted enough brains to actually undermine the integrity of an election he lost by 150,000 votes. It's really shameful.
A lot of people asking how I know this: because the state board is not susceptible to this kind of nonsense the way the county board in Wayne apparently is. They've made it quite clear already: washingtonpost.com/politics/michi… Image
And, for whatever it's worth, Biden actually doesn't need Michigan to win the election (he'd have 290 EVs without it) -- not that it should even come to that, but that's how not close this election is
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
16 Nov
I just want to say: Substack is awesome. It is what you make it, the voices on Substack are incredibly diverse, anyone can start one and you can easily run your content through editors or operate a traditional media company on the platform. It is so disheartening to see the hate.
The barrier of entry to launch something on Substack is low. So whether you're Glenn Greenwald or someone just starting their writing career you could easily produce bad content if you approach it the wrong way. But that's true of basically any media or writing endeavor.
I am absolutely baffled to see so many people hating on a platform that is creating more financial opportunities for writers and reporters at a time when the media industry is sucking air. Just because some ppl you don't like are publishing there? Get over it. This is huge!
Read 9 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
16 Nov
No joke, the Trump campaign has ***LITERALLY*** dropped allegations of not being able to observe the vote count in Pennsylvania. They revised their lawsuit: washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
Rudy says they have moved the allegations lower in the filing — if this WaPo report is wrong that they are the same claims, I imagine they will get excoriated as they did in Bucks, Montgomery, and pretty much everywhere else
Point being: removing them probably would have been smart, given how similar allegations have not held up anywhere else in PA or across the country.
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
8 Nov
1/ I hate to say this, but I think something people are really underestimating is how far Trump has driven many of his supporters into the deep end — and how little even him “graciously conceding” will calm down 10% or so of the country, even when he does concede (which he will)
2/ One of the first inklings of this was the debate with Kirsten Walker, when Trump clearly felt she was being fair and even complimented her, but his supporters thought she was overtly biased and totally unfair.
3/ It’s been very obvious in other places too, though. QAnon is an example that’s quite known to everyone — where Trump is no longer “driving” but his supporters are. They made the theory and goaded/pushed him into it, not the other way around.
Read 12 tweets

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