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Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
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19 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Initial claims rise modestly week over week, were ~1.1 million last week.
The recent declines in regular UI recipients, properly including the extended PEUC and EB programs, may be slowing.
And to punctuate that point: ~230,000 workers looked like they left regular state UI at the end of October, but actually just exhausted their regular benefits and transferred to the federal extended PEUC program.
Read this excellent piece from @pelhamprog and @ENPancotti to learn more about what it means if these extended programs expire as scheduled at the end of December. tcf.org/content/report…

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More from @ernietedeschi

Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
18 Nov
On the one hand, the US recovery so far has been durably positive & modest

On the other hand, b/t the COVID surge, the cold winter weather, exhausted household savings, the end of moratoria on student loans/foreclosures/evictions, & UI expirations, we're piling on a lot of risks
And add on the risks of business closures & state/local cuts. There's a lot that can hurt us economically between now and wide vaccine distribution.
The wrong question to ask is whether the recovery is "self-sustaining" without further fiscal support. I am less confident in this assessment now, but it's still quite possible that if we got no fiscal package most economic data would continue coming in north of zero.

Instead...
Read 8 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
12 Nov
#CPSMicrodataDay
The good news is that the rate in which employed workers are going directly into *permanent* layoff has fallen, though is still elevated [left].

The bad news is that the rate at which already-nonemployed workers are *becoming* permanent layoffs is high and rising [right]. ImageImage
Meanwhile, hourly wage growth among workers keeping their jobs is stable [L], but weekly wage growth has fallen [R], a sign that employed workers are getting fewer hours. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
12 Nov
The benefit cliff on December 31 is an economic setback when we least need one -- the winter months when businesses in many of the areas of the country will have a harder time staying open -- not to mention devastating for the affected workers.
Unlike the 7/31 expiration of the emergency $600/week FPUC, which was larger in aggregate dollar terms than this cliff, the 12/31 cliff will cut a deeper wound, because for many workers they won't get *any* aid after expiration; they still got base benefits when the FPUC expired.
It's less likely too that prior savings will be there to sustain the spending of unemployed workers; they've been drawing down their savings since the expiration of the $300/week LWA in mid-September. Many workers are likely to have exhausted their pandemic savings by New Year's.
Read 4 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
8 Oct
We're past the point where the problem is liquidity -- muni market frictions appear to have subsided, & the Fed has a credit facility aimed at regional governments.

The problem is that state & local revenue bases are collapsing & they legally have to balance their budgets.
The risks we face now actually played out in 2009 & 2010: state & local governments had to make deep cuts (purple bar below in the @BrookingsEcon measure), which became a drag on the then-nascent economic recovery.
If anything, the moral hazard argument around state & local aid cuts the *other* way from how opponents often make it:

The states that did the *right* thing with COVID restrictions likely saw deeper revenue hits, & that may be making them more hesitant to do the right thing now.
Read 5 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
6 Oct
@mikemadowitz and I had a productive conversation about this data.

It turns out, the disparity in marriage employment *counts* is mostly an artifact of something else going on in the household survey entirely. /1
Namely, look at what's happened to the number of married men and women reported in the household survey during the pandemic: a rapid rise in February, and then a fall after June. /2 Image
So a great deal of the declines in employment *counts* for married men and women in the household survey is explained by the declines in just the number of married people the survey shows in the first place. /3
Read 15 tweets
Ernie Tedeschi Profile picture
2 Oct
Jobs Day, September 2020
Jobs growth came in at +661K in Sept, but the labor market is losing momentum. We're still 10.7 mil jobs short of Feb employment, & 12.1 mil short of our pre-COVID trajectory. At Sept's pace, it will take us 17 mon to get back to Feb emp, & 26 mon to get back to pre-COVID trend.
That 10.7 million job loss since February means that overall employment is still down -7% since then. In the leisure & hospitality industry, it's still down **-23%**.
Read 7 tweets

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