@JoCiavaglia did this very good story about how Bucks County will be reporting its coronavirus figures moving forward. You can read more about that in the link below. More importantly (for me) this gives me an excuse to throw gifs and charts at you!!!!
As you're all probably aware, #coronavirus cases are way up in Pennsylvania and across the country. It's not just that cases are up, but that we've just about doubled the 14-day average case counts from the peak in April (in Bucks, MontCo and the statewide average). Image
A line chart is interesting as an overview, but I thought we should go through the past 9 months in a map to really put this in context. Below is the 14-day average case counts of coronavirus per 100k residents in March and April. Southeastern PA quickly becomes the hardest hit.
COVID-19 cases hit their peak around the middle of April, and we started to see declines across the state through March. Our color bar here is using the average case rate in April as the middle, with standard deviation from the average setting the lows and highs.
Then came June and July. This was when the western part of the state started to see a climb in cases that lead to some bar and nightclub restrictions. We start seeing more cases across the state, but still not nearly as severe in most areas as in April
August wasn't too bad, all thing considered. Some rural counties began seeing case rates higher than ever before, but most counties managed to cool down from previous months' surges.
Centre County had one of the highest rates in the state for while in late August and much of Sept. Again, we're using a population rate here, so not nearly as many cases total. Also, remember that we're basing this on April's average as we enter October
Because October and the start of November is when things kind of went off the rails for new cases. By November, our April benchmark begins to lose all meaning because nearly every county is so far past that earlier average.
I'm going to have to stop there for now. We'll try and talk more about hospitalizations because ... well @pegquann can fill you in on that. buckscountycouriertimes.com/story/news/202…
Anyway, wear a mask and maybe sit this Thanksgiving out.
Damn near forgot. As always, data is analyzed using @PythonPr @matplotlib @geopandas in a @ProjectJupyter notebook. @threadreaderapp Unroll please

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More from @ulleryatintell

22 Nov
I was curious about voter party turnout in PA, but I'm waiting on a Monday certification deadline. While I'm waiting, I thought I'd take a look at precinct-level data in Philadelphia. There's about 1.12 million registered voters and about 740,000 votes cast in this election Image
There's about 1,700 voting precincts in the city, with an average turnout of about 65.5%. Highest turnout at a single precinct was 88%, in a precinct at the 21st Ward in northwest Philadelphia. Image
Philadelphia is a heavily democratic city, with only about 16 precincts having more GOP than DEM voters. That lead is very narrow though, with GOP voters at most having a 15 percentage point lead on Democratic voters (as % of total voters by precinct) Image
Read 11 tweets
7 Nov
I came across something I think is worth expanding on in Bucks County. Let's start with the overall turnout. As of about 2:10 today, turnout was as high as 88% in some precincts. Turnout averaged about 78% at the precinct level throughout.
Voter turnout was actually lower among districts that had more Democrats than Republican voters. The darkest red areas here show where turnout is under 75% (a bit under the county average).
Turnout in Republican voting precincts was generally higher overall. These districts did contain both the highest and lowest turnout rates, at 53% and 88%, respectively.
Read 7 tweets
6 Nov
@PAStateDept mail ballot request data shows there were approximately 2.55 million mail-in ballots returned by Nov. 3. Current processing data shows about 2.63 mail-in ballots cast. We can estimate then that about 78,000 mail ballots have been received since Election Day. 1/???
The processing data (updated hourly according to data.pa.gov) shows about 112,000 ballots yet to be counted in the commonwealth. Even if we assume that total includes all of those 78,000 newer ballots, counties are still counting ballots arriving before election day.
Part of a state Supreme Court ruling allows the state to count mail ballots arriving three days after the election and they can accept ballots without a post mark. Let's unpack why the rule might be in place next ...
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
We've seen a lot of changes as results have rolled in. Trump's lead in both the state and Bucks County over Biden has been dwindling as more mail-in ballots get counted. Let's take a look at how the county shifted over the last 24 hours.
Just after midnight Nov. 4, the majority of the county's 304 precincts reported in. Trump had 56% of the votes to Biden's 46%, giving the incumbent President a significant lead in the earliest results.
More precincts began reporting in shortly before 2 a.m. yesterday morning. The newly reported precincts kept the gap between the two candidates the same as hours earlier.
Read 8 tweets
3 Nov
Big game is finally here! My fellow @CourierTimes
and @TheIntellNews reporters and I are visiting polling places and the @BucksCountyGovt elections office throughout the day and night with regular updates. My shift starts at 3 sooooo DATA THREAD!!!! bit.ly/3mPLjP2 1/8
According to the state's voter export (last updated at midnight Nov. 2), more than 2.4 million voters had already cast a ballot by mail. That's roughly 25% of the state's more than 9 million registered voters. 2/8
Those numbers wouldn't include any last-minute ballots dropped off, nor is taking into account any election results (because time moves forward, no matter how hard I try). Some counties have already seen more than 35% turnout from mail-in ballots so far. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
Thought I'd switch things up from the standard party differences I've been looking at with the voter export. Let's talk a little about the gender make up of the ~9 million voters in Pennsylvania. 1/???
For the most part, the gender makeup of voters in each town is relatively even. The difference between total male and female registered voters as a percent of all voters is generally less than a few percentage points.
There are only about 20 towns where women voters make up over 50% of the registered voters, and 8 of them are in Somerset County. Only one municipality has a 60% female voter makeup.
Read 11 tweets

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