Gentle reminder that in Switzerland we are still feeling our way in the dark: with a #SARSCoV2 test positivity this high, the # of cases we report is largely linked to the # of tests we do.
While there are other signs cases are going down, we have a poor grasp on how much.
1/5
While there are other signs cases are going down, we have a poor grasp on how much.
1/5
https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1329736777423343616
You can see this in this great cantonal graph by @gust_avius.
While tests & cases will always be linked somewhat, it's a bad sign when every jitter in testing is reflected perfectly in cases. It means we can't see exactly how case # are changing.
2/5
While tests & cases will always be linked somewhat, it's a bad sign when every jitter in testing is reflected perfectly in cases. It means we can't see exactly how case # are changing.
2/5
https://twitter.com/gust_avius/status/1329469218031546369
It's an even worse sign for places like Basel-Stadt, Schaffhausen, & Zug, where a decline in tests hasn't seen a same-size decrease in cases - in some cantons cases have even risen or plateaued despite the decrease in tests.
3/5
3/5
As long as our test positivity remains so high, we're at the edge of our knowledge about the #SARSCoV2 epidemic dynamics.
We risk rolling back measures too soon, when we still have a very limited understanding of how case numbers are really behaving
4/5
We risk rolling back measures too soon, when we still have a very limited understanding of how case numbers are really behaving
4/5
https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1323953032250466304
It's also a reminder that Swiss-wide estimates are likely largely reflecting the dynamics of hardest-hit cantons, but may be masking what's happening in other places in Switzerland. We must stay aware of the larger- & smaller-scale picture.
5/5
5/5
https://twitter.com/gust_avius/status/1329469218031546369
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