Looking back as we face a daunting #COVID19 winter: where did it all go wrong?

- We acted like we had an endless summer: didn't scale up #TestandTrace or plan ahead
- When cases rose, we hesitated. Priority on economy & freedom rather than lives means we're losing all three

1/6
We live in a world where a lot of things - politics & the economy in particular - are swayed by feelings & confidence. Politicians are used to being able to 'say things until they're true'.

Sadly, this doesn't work for viruses. Most leaders have not adjusted accordingly.

2/6
A lot of breath has been wasted on rhetoric:
'#COVID19 cases WILL come down'
'The economy WILL recover'
'Schools WILL stay open'

#SARSCoV2 cares little for words. Communication & messaging is important, but it is only /action/ that saves lives & livelihoods.

3/6
#SARSCoV2 does not care about promises or discussion. It does not care if curfews are unfair or masks are unpopular.

It only waits for opportunity.

When outcomes are promised without doing the action to get there, we back ourselves into corners where #COVID19 is waiting.

5/6
We must demand more than rhetoric from our governments. Fast action makes all the difference - we know this.

We can change the course of this pandemic - but not through empty promises. As we head into winter, let's make clear that we expect better from our leaders.

6/6

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More from @firefoxx66

4 Nov
Recently reported #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 '#mink mutation' in #Denmark is getting a lot of attention right now, but officially we know almost nothing about the variants/mutations in question.
From an SSI report from Sept, here is a little info.

ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/…

1/21
*Very important caveat* here that I'm working with very limited information, but trying to make some sense of something that's getting a lot of attention, with the little info I can find. However, this should be taken as a tweet thread, not a preprint or anything similar.

2/21
On page 8, the document describes 2 variants, defined by mutations A22920T & a 2 amino-acid deletion from 21766-21771. Both are changes in the Spike protein.

3/21 Image
Read 21 tweets
4 Nov
1/ Very important to keep in mind that we've essentially reached #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 testing capacity in #Switzerland. Tests have plateaued but positivity is still >20%.

This makes it *very difficult* to read anything into the case numbers. I would urge caution with all analyses.
2/ There has been talk about hoping we can see signs of measures working by end of this week.

But, many cantons are restricting tests, lines are very long in places, & overall Switzerland can't really test more.

This makes it difficult to see whether restrictions are working.
3/ In the analogy where #SARSCoV2 testing is 'switching on the light' to fully understand the scope of the pandemic, #Switzerland has walked to the edge of where our lightbulb can illuminate.

At the cusp of darkness it's hard to see. Let's not make a leap of faith. #TestTestTest Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants.

In our latest preprint, we describe a novel #SARSCoV2 variant that has spread across Europe this summer & what it can tell us.

Read it here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

1/16
This work was a fantastic joint effort with @MoiraZuber @SarahNadeau19 @TanjaStadler_CH & @richardneher in Switzerland & brilliant collaboration with @icoes & @fgonzalezf from SeqCOVID-Spain consortium.

Huge effort in getting this out quickly!

2/16
The 20A.EU1 variant is characterised by spike mutation A222V & accounts for >20% sequences circulating in Europe currently. Another variant, 20.EU2 has the mutation S477N and is about 15% of sequences.

We focus on 20A.EU1 - you can see both here:

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

3/16
Read 18 tweets
27 Oct
3 years ago today I took my kitty under 1 arm & my bike under the other & boarded the plane to Basel

Today is another bittersweet day: I turned in my paperwork for the end of my time at @UniBasel @biozentrum

Monday, I start a new adventure w @C_Althaus @unibern @ISPMBern!

1/9
My time at the @biozentrum @UniBasel has been wonderful. I have been empowered & supported to do great research as part of a great community. The sense of community is strong- not always so easily found in academia!
And I am grateful to have benefitted from @antelope_unibas!

2/9
It seems like a small and obvious thing, but during my time here one of the things that sticks with me is that I have been able to *focus on doing my job* - because admin & support staff are clearly on my side! I haven't had to battle bureaucracy or beat against walls.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
23 Oct
I've lost my vacuum cleaner.

I set the Roomba going on its little job & a little while later I heard it give its musical "I'm stuck!" alarm (in French, as I can't figure out how to change the language).

....And I can't find it 🙃🤦🏻‍♀️

#HowsYourFridayGoing?
Good news - I have found the Roomba. It made itself a little nest under a low cupboard, behind some boxes, & over some thick cables (didn't know it could crawl over those). It now has a dead battery & is being grumpy at me (in French).
Roomba & I have a strained relationship at times. I bought it second-hand & I think it has abandonment issues

Me: *pointing* I would actually really appreciate it if you'd do the kitchen floor now please
Roomba: *heads off to vacuum random corner by front door for the 17th time*
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
We do not have to choose between lives & livelihoods when fighting #SARSCoV2 - through effective #TestTraceIsolate & suppression, we can allow *everyone* to take part in an open society.

Join myself & more than 80 other #COVID19 scientists & experts - sign the #JohnSnowMemo
Why 'John Snow'? It's not just because winter is coming! John Snow is considered one of the founders of epidemiology - he traced a cholera outbreak in London to a water pump & removed the handle to curb transmission. Quick effective action saves lives!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow
The letter says it best, but why do we stand against 'targeted shielding' & 'natural herd immunity'?
1. We do not fully understand immunity to #SARSCoV2 - we don't know how effective it is, or how long it lasts. It's irresponsible to lean on something we don't know will work.
Read 12 tweets

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