there's no one "Asian-American" vote
i think polling cross-tabs kinda create the discourse in a weird way?

we talk about the latino vote and the asian-american vote partly bc, in many polls, it's grouped that way (which is often unavoidable given sample sizes)

just kinda a weird way for journalism to work

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More from @databyler

9 Nov
i have this feeling that shy trump is about to take on like 8 different definitions
i've seen a couple things floating around today that are like "shy trump is real!" but it meant non-response or people feeling personally sheepish about their vote (regardless of what they're saying to pollsters)
the OG definition is people lying to pollsters b/c of social desirability bias

but it's a catchy term so feels like all theories are gonna get filed under it, whether they're that or not
Read 4 tweets
1 May
i wrote about justin amash! basically

if the election is close


he maintains enough votes to actually matter


he takes mostly from one candidate

------> people have license to freak out. but none of those ^ conditions are close to given…
basically my thinking is that some chunk of the conventional wisdom jumped straight to "amash is running oh my god he's going to spoil it for biden"

which could happen but there are quite a few, completely not certain at all, things that would have to happen first
the election would have to be close enough for him to matter (not clear)
he'd have to maintain a big enough coalition to swing it (not clear, given downward general trend of 3rd parties as elex approaches)
he'd have to disproportionately take from biden (not at all inevitable)
Read 7 tweets
9 Jan
Sooo I have an exciting new experimental thing to show you guys! It’s the post opinions simulator. It’s a model-powered Build Your Own Election interactive for Iowa (w/other versions later)!…

Also some deets about how I think about this, math, etc
Here’s how I think about it: everyone has simplified representations of how elections work in their brain -- qualitative or quantitative. IOW everyone is a modeler.

Everyone can sorta run through different scenarios on their model: if X happened, how would it change things
So we thought it might be fun to lay out one of these models, let people play with it within some responsible guardrails as a way to help people think through elections and learn about it via that sort of tactile experience
Read 18 tweets
5 Sep 19
My meta theory on Trump is still that he never really updated his playbook/personality/strategy from the GOP primary.

It worked well enough to barely win a general election against HRC, but it hurt him in the midterms and makes him unpopular now.

And imo that explains a lot
Like the strategy is

Be super restrictionist on immigration

Be loudly "politically incorrect" on tons of stuff

Dominate media coverage all the time, even if it means doubling down on your negative qualities

Outsource issues you don't care about to existing GOP politicians
And that was good enough to a) give him a plurality in the GOP primary and b) help keep the already-fractured non-Trump wing of the GOP from consolidating --> win the nom

Then in the general he didn't change much & had the good luck of running against HRC, who was also unpopular
Read 8 tweets
31 Oct 18
Latest piece is on Texas Senate, and I argue

1) Cruz has been ahead this whole time
2) This election is way more normal/generic than coverage suggests
3) We're obsessed w/Texas b/c we believe that it shows us the future
4) It actually doesn't…
The first point is actually pretty easy to make. These are model results -- a version w/ just polling data and with polling plus other data sources

Cruz has always had a solid win probability. Not an unbeatable advantage. But there hasn't been as much change as people think here
MORE interesting is that this race is currently going about how we'd expect given the fundamentals

My fundamentals forecast (doesn't use fundraising) and thinks Cruz + 6-7 is the most likely outcome. RCP has Cruz up 7.2…
Read 17 tweets
9 Jul 18
I got polling data on over 3000 Trump tweets and found

1) They're are generally not super popular
2) Some the least popular tweets were insults
3) Some of the most popular tweets were boring ceremonial things
4) Rs, Ds sort of of agree on a lot of them…
Data is from YouGov's Tweet Index:

They've been getting national samples to rate Trump's tweets for like a year and a half ish. The scale is "Great" "Good" "OK" "Bad" "Terrible" for every tweet

That gets translated into a numerical score --> Tweet Index!
One basic finding is that the average (and median) Trump tweet is not super popular. Also notice the bump in the histogram to the left of zero -- lots of negative scores in this dataset.

There's a big spread though. Theoretical max/min is -200, 200 so some tweets are popular
Read 10 tweets

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