Thread by @databyler

Sooo I have an exciting new experimental thing to show you guys! It’s the post opinions simulator. It’s a model-powered Build Your Own Election interactive for Iowa (w/other versions later)!

washingtonpost.com/elections/post…

Also some deets about how I think about this, math, etc
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Here’s how I think about it: everyone has simplified representations of how elections work in their brain -- qualitative or quantitative. IOW everyone is a modeler.

Everyone can sorta run through different scenarios on their model: if X happened, how would it change things
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So we thought it might be fun to lay out one of these models, let people play with it within some responsible guardrails as a way to help people think through elections and learn about it via that sort of tactile experience
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For a lot of my career, I’ve been a person who makes math stuff, runs it + explains it. And I think that’s awesome + will keep doing that. But I’m also interested in trying give the math away and help readers get their heads around it in a new way. This is an attempt at that!
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The model itself is pretty simple -- it takes in fundraising and polling to see where results might go, it looks at a big variety of factors (number of polls, days until election, etc) to see how large a spread of results should be. 5/

It’s not a perfect model! It doesn’t include every possible detail of the primary, and models can *always* be more accurate. But I think it captures some parts of the process pretty well + lets people create scenarios in a reasonable, responsible way
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If you’ve got thoughts -- positive or constructive ;) -- about the thing, please email me! Email is on my profile somewhere. I’ve already been thinking on ways to improve / iterate on it and would love suggestions from people
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Also -- a TON of other people worked on this! I apologize in advance if I leave any of you off, but want to thank some people.

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.@AlyssaRosenberg managed this + it's as much her thing as mine. Wrangling the people that are needed to make this sort of thing happen, keeping us all on track, making the executive decisions etc is a HUGE effort. Having a great manager is key and she deserves tons of credit 9/

@AlyssaRosenberg .@mrejfox designed the thing and managed to turn a crazy simulator thing into something that looks beautiful and won't melt your phone. He is **great** -- learned so much about design, users etc from working w/him on this. He also owns this as much as Alyssa or I imo

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox .@salvesergio and @ChrisRukan did a *TON* of design work making the thing look beautiful. Learned a ton from working w/them on this, and they did awesome stuff.

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan The engineering team has been awesome as well - people don't realize how big of a lift this sort of thing is on that side of things! That's a BIG part of the innovation here

@jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg Jason H and everyone else whose twitter handles idk - hugely appreciate it

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg Also any part of the math here that's good probably came from @lbronner giving me a random tip off the top of his head, and any part that's bad is my fault. Lenny has been a super great sounding board this whole time. v much appreciate it

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg @lbronner there's the whole product team, @beccaclemons @Zainab_Mudallal and the people in operations -- basically this is a big effort w/a lot of hands on it, and I appreciate it from everyone!

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg @lbronner @beccaclemons @Zainab_Mudallal IDK if I have a ton else to say. It's great to have this in the world

And here's the newsletter signup! subscribe.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/#/…

I'm gonna have emails about this ^ and other election stuff

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg @lbronner @beccaclemons @Zainab_Mudallal ok i gotta like shower and get into the office, but we've got a live chat too at noon if you've got questions. Sign up!

live.washingtonpost.com/post-opinions-…

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg @lbronner @beccaclemons @Zainab_Mudallal Also I am a *total idiot* and was only thinking in work terms

The other person who deserves thanks is @kkruger48 for dealing w/all my stress around this and my general being during what she has so aptly dubbed "model hell"

I'm an extremely lucky man :)

@AlyssaRosenberg @mrejfox @salvesergio @ChrisRukan @jeremybowers @SimonGlennGregg @lbronner @beccaclemons @Zainab_Mudallal @kkruger48 ok now i am off twitter for a minute