Thread by @databyler

Latest piece is on Texas Senate, and I argue

1) Cruz has been ahead this whole time
2) This election is way more normal/generic than coverage suggests
3) We're obsessed w/Texas b/c we believe that it shows us the future
4) It actually doesn't

weeklystandard.com/david-byler/th…

The first point is actually pretty easy to make. These are model results -- a version w/ just polling data and with polling plus other data sources

Cruz has always had a solid win probability. Not an unbeatable advantage. But there hasn't been as much change as people think here

MORE interesting is that this race is currently going about how we'd expect given the fundamentals

My fundamentals forecast (doesn't use fundraising) and thinks Cruz + 6-7 is the most likely outcome. RCP has Cruz up 7.2

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/se…

And if you look at fav/unfav numbers, Cruz and O'Rourke are... pretty normal. In fact, Cruz's net fav is *better* than O'Rourke's in some recent polls

So, at least among Texas likely voters, Beto is not beloved by all and Cruz isn't hated universally. It's a more normal race

You can get there a couple different ways, but basically a mid to high single digit Cruz lead is.... not crazy different than what I'd expect given the circumstances, the fact that it's Texas, Cruz is an incumbent, etc.

Which is, I think, different from the CW here

(obligatory note -- a polling error or late shift could change the whole calculus on whether this race is "normal" and I talk about that in the piece)

NOW there are good reasons that this race is noteworthy

Like it's a real race in Texas! That's a big deal
And O'Rourke has raised a ton of money
And TX is politically interesting for a boatload of reasons
And the money thing communicates D base enthusiasm w.r.t. Beto

BUT I don't think that's all that's going on.

I think that when we talk about Texas, we're really talking about the future. Both short-term and long-term.

Beto's relationship to short-term D future is clear imo. Trump is, in some ways, kind of like a cartoonishly dialed up version of everything Ds traditionally attack Rs for

It's a natural human thing to want an alternative / have some sort of challenger. Beto fits that well rn

I mean there's no presidential primary rn. A lot of the Senate candidates are known quantities / incumbents. Some of the gov candidates can take the role of The Chosen One. But O'Rourke has less competition for that space now than he will here in about six months

But there's also a long-term future thing.

I think many people imagine the future of the US as either California or Texas. Both states already have a lot of Hispanic voters and are pretty urbanized

And the implication here is that if both go blue --> the future is Democratic

And I don't think that's right.

I think that if TX goes blue this cycle --> doesn't mean that it's permanently that way. The medium-long term trend in TX has been rightward, and 2012-->2016 was when things shifted left on POTUS level

So a lot of the recent leftward shift is due to political choices made by GOP, Dems -- specifically GOP to nominate Trump and shed some college-educated whites. I tend to think of those voters as swing-y that could be solidified by Ds or won back by Rs.

Anyways, the point is that TX isn't inevitably turning blue or something. That's just not what the data says

And it's not a perfect bellwether for the future either

My view is that TX is too megalopolis-y to be viewed as the future (see details in the piece for that one -- the math is fun and kind of funky)

And it's in one region. Regional differences exist in the US! It's hard for any one state to truly capture the nation w/that in mind

And that doesn't even get to the religious, economic and other differences between TX and the broader US... point is that you can/should pick apart the idea of any one state truly representing the US (now or a future version) b/c this is all really complex. Comparisons fall apart

And then you're left with us talking about Texas as if it's the future when in reality we have no idea where we're going

The things you can take to the bank in politics is that it'll remain competitive and will remain surprising. And TX-SEN isn't going to change those facts