Thread by @databyler

My meta theory on Trump is still that he never really updated his playbook/personality/strategy from the GOP primary.

It worked well enough to barely win a general election against HRC, but it hurt him in the midterms and makes him unpopular now.

And imo that explains a lot

Like the strategy is

Be super restrictionist on immigration

Be loudly "politically incorrect" on tons of stuff

Dominate media coverage all the time, even if it means doubling down on your negative qualities

Outsource issues you don't care about to existing GOP politicians

And that was good enough to a) give him a plurality in the GOP primary and b) help keep the already-fractured non-Trump wing of the GOP from consolidating --> win the nom

Then in the general he didn't change much & had the good luck of running against HRC, who was also unpopular

And now we are here

Where Trump actually has to do policy stuff, doesn't want to, still thinks dominating media in crazy ways all the time is great and outsources stuff he doesn't care about to McConnell

The approval rating + 2018 House results show it's not a good strategy

And I don't have a window into Trump's mind, but I'm guessing the 2016 primary + his personality informs him now

Many People Said he wouldn't win the 2016 primary, but he won anyways. So now when Many People Are Saying he's unpopular, he might be just ignoring it

^ that is speculative, and like I said I don't have a window into his mind. And maybe parts of this are wrong

But I do think there's something to the overall idea here

one response I'm getting is that it's not a strategy and Trump is just being himself

I sorta agree? For some pols, there's not a bright line btwn strategy and persona. Like if you do politics, what you're doing is by definition a strategy, even if it happens to resemble you IRL

also getting people saying Trump can't change and he is who he is. I think that's a reasonable view given what we've seen over the last four-ish years

would only tweak slightly & say that Trump "probably won't" change b/c again I don't know him personally --> hard to say can't