Sweden to hit +0.03%, maybe +0.04%, excess deaths in 2020.
Some years that had comparable excesses in Sweden:
1957 (+0.03%)
1960 (+0.02%)
1962 (+0.02%)
1968 (+0.03%)
1969 (+0.04%)
1976 (+0.03%)
1985 (+0.03%)
1988 (+0.05%)
1993 (+0.02%)
1995 (+0.03%)
2002 (+0.02%)
2012 (+0.02%)
Some years that had comparable excesses in Sweden:
1957 (+0.03%)
1960 (+0.02%)
1962 (+0.02%)
1968 (+0.03%)
1969 (+0.04%)
1976 (+0.03%)
1985 (+0.03%)
1988 (+0.05%)
1993 (+0.02%)
1995 (+0.03%)
2002 (+0.02%)
2012 (+0.02%)
https://twitter.com/Hail__To_You/status/1330689035090608128
The picture we have is that Wuhan-Corona as an indisputably severe flu wave, but just as indisputably as one within the normal-historical range for such flu waves. A Sweden born in 1957 has lived through 13 comparable severe flu waves.
(Excesses rounded to the hundredth place and calculated on +/- two year averages.) (From Swedish Health Ministry and Eurostat.)
Zoom-in on 2000-2020 for Sweden:
The magnitude of the Wuhan-Corona wave is clearly above the baseline but nothing close to the virus-apocalypse movie people were sold.
Recall this is Sweden, the Wuhan-Corona Natural Experiment. #SwedenWasRight to not Lockdown. Many were wrong.
The magnitude of the Wuhan-Corona wave is clearly above the baseline but nothing close to the virus-apocalypse movie people were sold.
Recall this is Sweden, the Wuhan-Corona Natural Experiment. #SwedenWasRight to not Lockdown. Many were wrong.
Graphs are helpful because you can grasp instantly what it takes a lot of words to halfway convey.
"Data hugs the baseline." When it goes low, it tends to soon go up. When it goes high, it tends to soon 'correct' and go low again.
"Data hugs the baseline." When it goes low, it tends to soon go up. When it goes high, it tends to soon 'correct' and go low again.
2019 was a remarkably mild year and 2020 corrected for it.
That simple and highly mundane observation alone accounts for a surprising portion of the Wuhan-Corona wave, perhaps at very least a quarter of it, maybe a third.
That simple and highly mundane observation alone accounts for a surprising portion of the Wuhan-Corona wave, perhaps at very least a quarter of it, maybe a third.
I made this Corona-Context graph (deaths as a % of population) into one graphic.
Either #SwedenWasRight to not engage in any shutdowns, or we should have done shutdowns about once every five years, appoximately forever.
Either #SwedenWasRight to not engage in any shutdowns, or we should have done shutdowns about once every five years, appoximately forever.
discussion extended with new graph and data:
https://twitter.com/Hail__To_You/status/1331032568406241280
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