Earlier, I posted this on Twitter and, predictably, all the conversation is about Mnuchin at 9%. Why?

(1/7)
Remember that the limit for an account is $850. So, if you are dead sure that Mnuchin will not be the TreasSec on March 1, then deposit $850 and in an account and get an $80 profit on March 1.

This is not why people bet on @PredictIt. They want to speculate!

(2/7)
So, some bettors think it makes more sense to buy Mnuchin at 9% and "hope" the Trump lawsuits or something else come along and pops this contract to 18%. Double your money!!

(3/7)
Again, this is not about Mnuchin going to 100% and staying as TreasSec, it about his contract popping 50% to 100% in short order, over a sure 10% in four months (March 1) on $850 total account limit.

(4/7)
Ditto the state betting that Trump has a 10% chance of winning GA or PA or AZ. They bet is not Trump overturns the election. The speculative bet is some court ruling or evidence emerges that pops these contracts to 20% to 25%, and walk away with a good profit.

(5/7)
Restated, the $850 limit means a lack of arbitrage. So, view anything between 90% and 98% as functionally the same as 99% (or 10% to 2% as functional the same as 1%).

(6/7)
Or go full @NateSilver538 and purposely elect to not understand this so you can call these contracts "dumb" (Note, who needs Nate Silver when these "dumb" markets can replace him)

(7/7)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

21 Nov
Some new charts ...

% of a State's beds used by COVID patients.

The thick black line is the US National Average

Also shown is the four highest % states (SD, NE, IL, WI) and the four lowest (VT, HI, ME, NH)

@ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson @EpsilonTheory @MishGEA @ttmygh

(1/4)
Here is the raw number of beds being used nationally by COVID patients

(2/4)
Here is the raw number of IL beds used by COVID patients. IL is #3 nationally and the largest four states with the highest % of bed used by CV19..

Note the growth in the last month

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
nbcnews.com/business/econo…

President-elect Joe Biden said Thursday that he has decided whom he will nominate for treasury secretary and that he will make the announcement in the coming weeks.

(1/2)
And look who jumped into the lead in the betting markets (but both are still under 50%)

(2/2)
Interesting update
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct
The United States
(1/4)

Deaths, survival, and hospitalizations, are important but they do not drive behavior and policy. The "reaction function" is case counts.

When does this rise stop? What should the US do?

@ErikSTownsend @ttmygh @EpsilonTheory @chrismartenson @MishGEA
The Midwest
(2/4)

WI and OH are swing states? How does this impact them?

1. Blame Trump?
2. Republicans will vote, Democrats will stay home?
Western Europe

Does this vertical rise stop double again in the next few weeks? Double after that? Or is it peaking now?

When does it stop? What should Europe do?
(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep
ft.com/content/98ae29…

The survey by UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in September, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win the upcoming matchup slated for November 3.

(1/4)
We have argued investors view the election in the same way the betting market views it.

As highlighted above, 60% of investors think Biden will win. This is nearly identical to what the betting markets have discounted.

@PredictIt

(2/4) Image
These probabilities are not close to how the poll analyzers see it. @FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 77% chance of winning. The @ECONdailycharts models give Biden an 85% chance of winning.

projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-…

(3/4) ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
A thread explaining why the bond market is asleep and what wakes it up.

---

The next chart shows the MOVE Index (Merrill Options Volatility Estimate). It is the “VIX of the bond market” and is near its lowest reading in history (which was set on July 30).

(1/10)
Should interest rates be this low? Consider these 2 charts.

The bond market often moves in tandem with commodities. But as the boxes show, that has not been the case recently.

Commodities are suggesting interest rates should be moving higher, but they are not.

(2/10)
* Top panel shows the SPX (log)
* Orange bars show the VIX’s close on days the SPX hit an all-time high (ATH).

VIX hit 26.57 when the SPX hit an all-time high on Sep-2. The VIX has never been higher with SPX at ATH.

Stocks are not exhibiting low levels of volatility.

(3/10)
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!