Quants continue to ramp up the use of machine learning, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of clients.
Risk of overfitting (ML finding spurious correlations from data mining) is the biggest risk.
Unsurprisingly, quants are divided on factors. Think there's an element of denialism with the ones saying their experience has been positive over the last year. You can still be a believer and admit the last year has been profoundly shitty.
Some think machine learning will prove the salvation of factor investing.
Finding and retaining talent seems to be less of a challenge these days, but a lot of quants worried about strategy crowding.
This is REALLY interesting. A third of quant hedge funds have incubated or are already live with a systematic credit strategy, and another 50% are either considering or actively researching one. Think this is an area that will see a lot of development in the coming years.
Biggest challenge to systematic credit strategies is how much more complicated it is to implement an algorithmic, automated approach in an asset class that is still a lot less electronically traded than equities.
Allocators definitely seem interested in systematic credit space.
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I have a new big read out, on the renewed challenges that active fund managers have had in fulfilling their promise to outperform in rockier markets - and the implications of that. ft.com/content/621d51…
There's now north of $12tn in index funds and ETFs, after a decade of breakneck growth.
Even that underestimates their heft. BlackRock estimated in 2017 that there is another $6.8tn of institutional or internal indexed strategies just on the equities side, so we're almost certainly talking well over $20tn in total now. blackrock.com/corporate/lite…
Since I know that what everyone *really* wants right now is the take of financial analysts, I’m going to share some of the first notes to hit my inbox. First up is Goldman Sachs, which thinks Biden will still get a $1tn stimulus package despite GOP-controlled Senate.
Here’s Oxford Economics, which warns that Biden is inheriting a “frail” economy.
SEB also thinks a $1tn stimulus package is coming, but expects the biggest change to be on the international arena.
We recently revealed Masayoshi Son's SoftBank as the "Nasdaq Whale" that created a splash in the US options market, and contributed to the summer stock market melt-up. But there are millions of "Mini Masas" that in aggregate likely dwarf its impact. ft.com/content/b330e0…
As the previous chart shows (a massive thanks to @jasongoepfert for the data), the volume of call premiums being traded in small retail-sized lots (10 contracts or less) has gone absolutely PARABOLIC lately.
@jasongoepfert Here is the share of small US equity options lots as a % of the whole market. Absolutely wild.
On June 12, Alex Kearns, a young student, took his own life, after believing that he had lost over $700,000 trading options on Robinhood. I’m glad that the FT has made our big piece on it free to read, but here is a long thread on my thoughts. ft.com/content/45d0a0…
But first of all, mental health is a serious issue that still wrongly carries some kind of stigma. Please, if you ever feel down and need help, don’t button it up, reach out to someone! Hell, even DM me. It helps to talk. Here is more info:
Ok, like many others, I’ve laughed at the memes – Daddy Powell! BTFD! and the bombast from the likes of Portnoy. Hard not to be amused at someone telling Warren Buffett to GTFO because “I’m the captain now”.