Last week, Illinois reported 15,415 cases in a single day, more than Florida ever did in a single day. This is despite Illinois' population being 40% lower.
Many of you probably did not know the dire situation in Illinois. That's because no mainstream media chose to report it.
Here is how the media chose to report Illinois now (left) vs Florida in July (right).
Unfortunately, no national news outlet is covering the situation in Illinois.
No other state has ever averaged 12,000 cases a day for a whole week. Not even Florida (1.7x pop), California (3x pop), and Texas (2.3x pop).
For deaths per capita, Illinois also exceeded the peak deaths in Florida twice, once in May and once again now. So why is this not news?
On the surface, Illinois has done many things "right":
- Mask mandate since May 1
- $5M ad campaign to encourage mask wearing
- Closing indoor dining/bars at end of October
- Stay at home advisory in Chicago and additional statewide restrictions enacted last week
We hear a lot of the talk about how the deaths in Florida were "preventable". What about the ones in Illinois?
I tried to search for discussions on what went wrong in Illinois or whether we could have mitigated/prevented the situation, but I couldn't find much.
I don't want to spark a political debate here. I just hope that more people can recognize that the news we consume online can be inherently biased. They often serve to fuel division (and clicks).
The sooner we can recognize that, the sooner we can come together.
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Using this map, you can see that many counties in the Northeast and Northwest still have very low rates of prevalence, and thus are susceptible to a future wave.
A few more observations:
Zooming in to the Midwest, it seems like counties in Minnesota have a lower prevalence than its neighboring states.
Western side of Kansas also shows very high prevalence, but prevalence is many times lower just across the border in eastern Colorado.
If you're under 50, your odds of dying if you contract COVID-19 is ~0.013% or 1 in 8000. This is similar to the odds of dying in a car accident in a year.
BUT many infected people will go on to infect others. In this thread I'll explain why we cannot treat the two risks equally.
The current Rt for the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the US is ~1. This means that an infected person will infect, on average, 1 other person. That person will infect another, and so on.
After 3 months, ~20 people will have been infected that can be indirectly attributed to the 1st case.
If Rt increases to 1.2, then 130 people will have been infected after 3 months. All stemming from 1 infection.
The chance that at least 1 person among the 130 will die is non-trivial (~50%).
That's why we need to view COVID-19 as a *community risk*, not an *individual risk*.
We increased our forecasts over the past week after incorporating several new factors:
- A potential loss of immunity after >6 months
- Further relaxation of policies
- Increased interactions (school reopenings, return to work, etc)
- Plateau in cases/hospitalizations
There is currently a lack of consensus among the top models about the short-term deaths forecasts.
Our model and the COVIDhub ensemble model both suggest a possible plateau in reported deaths over the next few weeks.
This week's forecast is a slight uptick from past weeks' forecasts.
We believe new infections may be flattening at 2x the level it was back in May. That is a cause for concern.
Which direction new infections will go is still uncertain, at least from the data.
We may see cases plateau at around the 40k/day mark. Cases may increase in the near future, but it's unclear if that'll be due to backlog/increased testing or due to a true rise.
Hence, test positivity and hospitalizations are better metrics to monitor.
In our update this week, we've lowered our COVID-19 projections by ~10%. We're now forecasting 42,000 (25-68k) additional deaths & 220,000 total deaths (202-244k) by November 1.
According to our open-source evaluations, covid19-projections.com continues to be a top-performing model for both US and state-by-state recent projections.