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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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24 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Singapore reaches 14 days of no community transmission.

Congratulations! ImageImageImage
Perfect summary:

Notice that Singapore is on the way to opening large venues!
(5 cases per day are not community transmission) Image

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Nov
What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?

Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.

Let’s look at several reports:

1/
Boston Consulting Group Report

“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”



2/
International Monetary Fund Report



3/
Read 16 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Nov
"Weeks before the state rolled out its color-coded tier system for reopening counties, a pandemic expert warned reopening the economy so soon would eventually just lead to more shutdowns.

1/
Guess what?

nbcsandiego.com/news/local/pan…
"New England Complex Systems Institute founder Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam has advised presidential administrations and worked to end the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

“All you’re doing is perpetuating the situation,” said Bar-Yam in an interview with NBC 7 back in August

2/
“If you have a fire in your house,” said Bar-Yam. “What you really want to do is get rid of it. And you don’t want to leave any fire around.”

 “The fastest, best way to get out of this is to go all in and get rid of the disease,” said Bar-Yam.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Nov
Europe (blue curve) continues to see decreasing case counts. The daily average is now 214k, significantly lower than the peak during late Oct. to Nov. Several countries are still experiencing exponential growth including Serbia, yesterday a new high of 7,579. Image
South Africa saw surges in Eastern Cape and Western Cape recently. Yesterday, the national increase was 3,250 cases, highest since August. Their daily average increases by 30% in the last two weeks. Image
South Korea reported 583 cases yesterday, surpassing the peak of its previous wave. Seoul, Gyeonggi-do recorded 213 and 183 new cases, significantly higher than recent averages. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Nov
Canada yesterday saw a new high of 6,795 cases, based on JHU data. Though Ontario and Quebec are leveling in the past two weeks, Alberta's daily average rose from 851 to 1,406. Saskatchewan is also on the rise. Image
Belgium reported 1,123 cases yesterday, the lowest since Sept. 21, as the country finishes the third week of the recent national lockdown. Now the daily average is 1/6 of what it was one month ago. Daily deaths also have been trending downward. Image
Yesterday Turkey reported 6,713 cases with 153 deaths, both highest since the pandemic. Testing positivity also recently surged. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
21 Nov
In-flight transmission despite required masks, gloves and pre-flight testing. @nntaleb

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.

washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/11…
"The study details an outbreak linked to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

The report details a coronavirus outbreak linked through DNA analysis to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

2/
"The traveler, who tested negative for the coronavirus with a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 48 hours of the flight, was contagious but pre-symptomatic onboard the plane, and infected at least four other passengers.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
20 Nov
Paradox: Biden says he will shut down the virus, not the economy. The high US transmission means a short lockdown is necessary. Theory and experience in countries around the world tell us this is true. A few localities might be exempted.

1/
A short lockdown with rapid green zone reopening is the fastest way to achieve economic recovery. Half-way measures don’t work. In order to have something different happen than under the Trump administration, and prevent further surge of the disease this is the way.

2/
Contrast “Red Zone” with “Green Zone” strategy: In red zone strategy you impose restrictions based on transmission rate, mostly in red zones. In green zone strategy you start to suppress transmission everywhere, identify, create, open up green zones. It is the exit strategy.

3/
Read 10 tweets

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