Thesis: America is transitioning from the coolest country in the world to the holiest country in the world. From blue jeans & counterculture to blue checks & cancel culture.
America's soft power remains, but it's of a very different type, and more vulnerable in the long run. Converting all these soft power institutions like Hollywood into instruments for propagating a very American form of secular gospel may open up space for competitors.
The rise of TikTok is instructive. Twenty years ago, the idea that a Chinese app could outcool Hollywood & SV to win millions of US teenagers would be laughable.
Is it a national security threat? Maybe, but the soft power issue may be a bigger deal than even the data collection.
The closest analogy to US posture vis-a-vis TikTok may be France's reaction to Anglo-American hegemony. The Académie Française has waged a campaign of cultural protectionism against foreign influence for years, acting literally as the language police. euronews.com/2019/11/22/fre…
There is actually a common logic behind the French campaign against Franglais, the American campaign against TikTok, and even the Chinese campaign against Facebook.
Cultural protectionism arises when a culture is insecure. That's not to say it's all bad, or always bad. For a small country or community to pass down its ancient culture and language intact in the face of global American cultural hegemony requires a determined effort.
The US still thinks of itself as effortlessly culturally dominant, so the recent wave of cultural protectionism & wariness of foreign influence hasn't been recognized as such. It focused first on politics (the Russians), then on social media (the Chinese), but won't stop there.
But it's a mistake to think of this as a conflict of nation states.
The novel thing today is that for the first time in living memory the United States of America has a peer competitor in terms of cultural attractiveness: namely, the uncensored, encrypted, global Internet.
The Internet didn't just birth companies that outcompeted older American names like Kodak, Ford, and Hilton. It staffed them with immigrants. And it generated ideas that jar the US establishment, currencies that challenge the Fed, even diets that contest the USDA food pyramid.
The Internet is still seen as largely American. But the early American colonies were seen as British. And the Internet is now >10X bigger than the US, and its own thing.
The proposed new anti-crypto regulation by @stevenmnuchin1 is a form of financial disenfranchisement. It harms people who lack ID, further expands the surveillance regime, and sets up more honeypots for hackers.
Let's remember that OPM was hacked. And the State of Texas, and the Department of Veterans Affairs, and NARA, and even the US Voter Database.
Forcing companies to surveil you is bad enough. Then the databases get hacked and blasted all over the internet. digitalguardian.com/blog/top-10-bi…
The new regulation is financial disenfranchisement because it takes away a right people already have: the right to use crypto without being surveilled, tracked, and recorded in some US government database. coincenter.org/we-must-protec…
We really should be in the middle of a golden age of productivity. Within living memory, computers did not exist. Photocopiers did not exist. *Backspace* did not exist. You had to type it all by hand.
It wasn't that long ago that you couldn't search all your documents. Sort them. Back them up. Look things up. Copy/paste things. Email things. Change fonts of things. Undo things.
Instead, you had to type it all on a typewriter!
If you're doing information work, relative to your ancestors who worked with papyrus, paper, or typewriter, you are a golden god surfing on a sea of electrons. You can make things happen in seconds that would have taken them weeks, if they could do them at all.
If you're interested in self-hosting, I've been very impressed with cloudron.io. Open source, quick to set up, allows easy installation of Ghost, Mattermost, GitLab, and 80+ other apps.
A few tips:
1) Use a dedicated server from Hetzner or Contabo, not an AWS instance. Reason: it's 10-100X cheaper & you don't need programmability.
2) You'll need to configure the box to send email (eg password resets), which means a host that allows setting PTR records.
Cloudron may be interesting for crypto & dweb people as well because packaging new apps for it is Docker-based and quite easy. docs.cloudron.io/custom-apps/tu…
"One of the clearest indications of stagnation is the flatlining of energy usage...Hall calls the long-term trend of about 7% annual growth in energy usage per capita the 'Henry Adams Curve'. In the late 20th century, we fell off of it." rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-fl…
"A good explanation for technological stagnation is that the only technological revolution of the last 50 years, computing, was the only one that didn’t need more power than could be provided by the technology of the 1970s." rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-fl…
"An even greater regulatory burden applies to nuclear power, which Hall blames for the skyrocketing cost of power plants in the US."
- Be open source dev
- Issue a token
- Hold X% of it
- Has 0 value initially
- Award (100-X)% of it over time to folks who contribute code
- Companies then buy token to prioritize bugs & features
- Suddenly, an economy arises!
The basic idea is that the token starts as zero value. There's no ICO, it's just a way for the lead dev to say thank you for people submitting pull requests.
Over time, it organically gains utility, as it becomes a way to pay for the time of people with skill in that codebase.
The value of the token is essentially a bet on how big the open source project will get. If you believe that a project may attain thousands of stars and forks, you buy the token as a way of supporting the devs *and* capturing upside.
If Ds are less likely to vote in-person this year than Rs due to COVID, and only (say) 80% of those would have voted in-person actually end up voting by mail, that could mean a big partisan swing to Republicans.
This *may* be what 538 is missing. 🧵
Put another way: whenever you convert from one channel to another, like going from in-person to mail, you will lose some fraction of people.
If a much larger share of Ds are doing that conversion this year than Rs, they lose more votes. That could be the big unmodeled factor.
I looked at how 538 modeled COVID's impact on turnout. It appears they model COVID’s impact solely as higher uncertainty. But not as a partisan factor that favors Rs who will vote in-person more than Ds because they are less concerned about COVID. fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-f…