New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
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EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
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Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
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EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term
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In medium term, many in EU hope UK will come closer to the EU, but see this will take time, may need change of government.
EU views mostly distinctly chilly if UK wanted to rejoin EU even in ten years time - needs generational change probably.
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EU views mostly distinctly chilly if UK wanted to rejoin EU even in ten years time - needs generational change probably.
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On UK constitutional challenges:
broad acceptance that if a border poll votes for Irish reunification, N Ireland will again be part of EU.
On Scottish independence, a range of views but broadly seen as less worrying than in 2014, even if more instability in UK not welcome
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broad acceptance that if a border poll votes for Irish reunification, N Ireland will again be part of EU.
On Scottish independence, a range of views but broadly seen as less worrying than in 2014, even if more instability in UK not welcome
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Varying EU views if UK will have fragmented or not in 10 years' time via Scottish independence &/or Irish re-unification. UK has fallen a long way down EU priorities' list so not a hot topic. Some speculation about what a new 'England & Wales' state wd be like.
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General expectation of EU neutrality in any future referendum in Scotland or border poll in Ireland/N Ireland. May, in part, be influenced by state of EU-UK relations at the time but UK now a third country & Scotland pro-EU stance noted (& sympathised with)
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If Scotland becomes independent in a legally & constitutionally valid way, with agreement between London & Edinburgh, common EU view is that Scotland cd then have a normal EU accession - tho high alertness to Spanish sensitivities.
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Many see an independent Scotland's EU accession process as much more straightforward than current W Balkans accession processes - Scotland is seen as a northern European country with a strong democracy & rule of law, market economy, a 6th Nordic EU state even
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Differing EU views on whether iScotland accession to EU would be faster or slower - some see it as rather fast, if Scotland still mostly aligned to EU rules; others more concerned at economic challenges & criteria
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