Thread by @KirstyS_Hughes

Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland
1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
2/

And as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out NI, like GB, faces major negative impact on services.
Not obvious why NI would somehow become a super hot FDI destination given all this plus associated uncertainty
3/

https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1186303595219738624?s=20

Less attention paid to fisheries but:
Article 5.3 NI protocol 'EU's Customs Code is applied to, & in, Northern Ireland, but not to UK territorial waters adjacent to Northern Ireland' & NI fisheries products to be exempt from duties. Tell that to Scotland's fishermen
4/

Those following the debate on Scottish independence will like the following summary impact of putting EU customs & regulatory border betn GB/NI: "It has not been possible to monetise the costs and benefits of the Northern Ireland protocol."

5/

Note too Commission's summary of where GB-NI goods don't face tariffs, emphasis on processing:
"all goods that are not subject to further processing & that meet the criteria..the Joint Committee will establish in order to determine the risk of the onward movement of that good"