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If the EU does give UK a 9 month extension (not certain, cd be less, cd be more) then what for Brexit & chances of a people's vote? thread
9 months wd give time to hold another EU referendum - but not that much time as it wd probably need 4-7 months.
1/11
9 months wd give time to hold another EU referendum - but not that much time as it wd probably need 4-7 months.
1/11
Parliament - which has not yet found a majority for anything on Brexit beyond delay (& triggering A50) - would have to choose to hold a people's vote & pass necessary legislation. This would need Labour & enough Tory MPs to back a PV with remain on the ballot paper.
2/11
2/11
100 Tory MPs voted against May on A50 extension yesterday, 80 abstained - the pro-Brexit hardliners of various shades. They may try to topple May or force an election.
So timing cd be EP elections (which must act as a proxy EU referendum) then general election, then PV
3/11
So timing cd be EP elections (which must act as a proxy EU referendum) then general election, then PV
3/11
Also factor in a Tory leadership election.
All this means we don't know what government may be in power if/when PV is organised.
What would be on ballot paper? A remain option is the easy part - a referendum without remain wd disenfranchise half of voters & who wd campaign?
4/11
All this means we don't know what government may be in power if/when PV is organised.
What would be on ballot paper? A remain option is the easy part - a referendum without remain wd disenfranchise half of voters & who wd campaign?
4/11
If withdrawal agreement hasn't passed parliament, what is 'leave'/Brexit option on ballot? It cd be May's deal - but will she be there to campaign for it, & who else wd campaign for it - not half her party at least.
Or would the Commons conditionally pass a 'soft' Brexit?
5/11
Or would the Commons conditionally pass a 'soft' Brexit?
5/11
There's no majority so far in Commons for a Norway plus or similar 'soft' Brexit nor for Corybn's unclear, not v 'soft' customs union plus. And if a majority voted for 'soft' Brexit v remain in a people's vote, who wd actually campaign for 'soft' Brexit?
6/11
6/11
People's vote ballot cd repeat 2016, remain/leave, but that lets Brexiters off hook of last 3 years' exposure of grim realities of Brexit.
EU summit will surely say the only deal is the withdrawal agreement, so Commons cd put WA v remain on ballot but who wd campaign for WA?
7/11
EU summit will surely say the only deal is the withdrawal agreement, so Commons cd put WA v remain on ballot but who wd campaign for WA?
7/11
Electoral Commission cd then agree with or change question but if Commons has made political decision on the choice, they may surely tweak the wording not the substance.
So path to a people's vote, if EU summit gives a longer extension looks more promising but still v tricky
8/11
So path to a people's vote, if EU summit gives a longer extension looks more promising but still v tricky
8/11
May looks like, in the face of a 9 month or longer extension, she will still aim to continue tactical manoeuvring to get WA through. But 9 months will unleash a whole set of political dynamics that will kick the UK out of its groundhog day, for better or worse.
9/11
9/11
Could Tory/Lab talks yet produce a customs union with or without a people's vote? Perhaps but it wd also finish off the imploding Tories.
So Labour choices crucial here still.
EP elections vital - the UK pro-remain majority needs to vote for clearly remain parties.
10/11
So Labour choices crucial here still.
EP elections vital - the UK pro-remain majority needs to vote for clearly remain parties.
10/11
A long delay opens up political options & dynamics but won't resolve the deep UK political crisis or its failing politics. But it gives us a chance, unless EU summit backs off from long delay. That chance will have to be grasped swiftly or it will trickle away very fast.
11/11
11/11
