I realize all the updates have probably been confusing, so let me try to summarize the #IA02 situation.
21 out of the district's 24 counties (all but Clinton, Jasper, & Scott) have recounted and certified results. Miller-Meeks (R) leads by 35 votes in those counties.
Jasper County just finished its recount and Hart (D) netted 1 vote (which would narrow the margin to 34 votes overall). These new results haven't been certified but there's no reason to think they won't be.
Scott County also finished its recount today and Hart netted 26 votes (which would narrow the margin to 8 votes). These new results haven't been certified AND might not be, because there was a 131-ballot discrepancy between the recount total and original total.
Finally, Hart has reportedly already netted 1 vote from Clinton County, but the recount there is ongoing, with 6,000 more ballots to go through. They meet again on Saturday. #fin#IA02
(This is all based on the invaluable reporting of @libmeyer and @tjbarton83 — give them a follow for real-time coverage! #IA02)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
FiveThirtyEight is out with a big project this week—no, not that one. Introducing our state-by-state guide to voting in the pandemic: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
First, we have a big map of mail-voting rules in each state. On the liberal end, 9 places are mailing ballots to every voter. On the conservative end, 8 states are still requiring voters to provide an excuse. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
But here's the really exciting part: Click on your state and you'll get a big guide to how to vote: deadlines for registering, requesting and submitting a mail ballot, access to in-person and early voting... projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-20…
If you'll permit me a pedantic "well, actually" thread... #Actually, absentee voting and mail voting ARE different.
1. The way Trump seems to be distinguishing them, "mail voting" = a state mails everyone a ballot automatically. "Absentee voting" = voters have to proactively request a ballot. You may prefer the former or the latter setup, but there IS a difference.
2. Absentee voting can be done in person; many states simply have "in-person absentee voting" in lieu of early voting. When you see stats like "X% of votes were absentees" that doesn't mean X% were mailed in.
Sigh. I guess everyone is going to overreact to early-voting numbers again. Here are all the ways that can go wrong:
1. We don't actually know how early voters voted; we just know what party they're registered with, and there's no guarantee that they voted for that party's candidate, especially in states where voter reg is weird like Ohio.
2. We don't know how independent early voters are voting. A 40–30% Democratic EV lead is meaningless if all the independents vote for Republicans.