Profile picture
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Sigh. I guess everyone is going to overreact to early-voting numbers again. Here are all the ways that can go wrong:
1. We don't actually know how early voters voted; we just know what party they're registered with, and there's no guarantee that they voted for that party's candidate, especially in states where voter reg is weird like Ohio.
2. We don't know how independent early voters are voting. A 40–30% Democratic EV lead is meaningless if all the independents vote for Republicans.
3. We don't know if Democratic enthusiasm in the 1st week of early voting is part of an overall rise in Democratic interest that will continue through the end of EV, or if they are just people who would've voted anyway voting early because they're so pumped.
4. The types of people who vote early vs. will vote on Election Day are inherently demographically different, so they might vote totally differently too. And in many (though not all) states, the Election Day vote will outnumber the early vote.
5. Polls account for early voters anyway, so it's double-counting to mentally "add" Democrats' early-vote advantage onto their advantage in polls.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nathaniel Rakich
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!