Been thinking about WWII intelligence for next book on grand strategy. Have decided Operation Mincemeat is the best example of a intelligence ‘success’ that was actually a disaster
For those who don’t know, Mincemeat was the planting of intelligence to convince the Germans that the western allies were not going to invade Sicily: history.com/.amp/news/what…
The argument is that Mincemeat convinced the Germans to move some troops out of Sicily which made for an easier invasion. Celebrations all around!
Actually; the Germans would not have been able to stop any Sicily invasion, moving troops out of Sicily simply kept down their losses, in that way it helped them.
On a larger scale, Mincemeat makes the taking of Sicily a little easier, which is a catastrophe for the western allies. Convinces them to invade Italy, which was not agreed before
Opens up the wasteful and unnecessary two year, bloody struggle in Italy, which makes almost no difference in allied victory, while causing untold suffering
Operation Mincemeat the disastrous success and an example of everything that is wrong in WW2 history.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

26 Nov
A background to why I tweeted about Mincemeat. It starts from the fact that the invasion of Italy was not in the original plans for 1943. Coming out of Casablanca, the US and UK had agreed the following:
1) There would be no invasion of France in 1943
2) One mediterranean Island would be invaded (probably Sicily)
3) The CBO would get priority for air assets
4) The Battle of the Atlantic would be won
this is worth noting because the Allied leaders felt no need to approve an invasion of Italy to be seen to be active.
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov
1) Those who want to force immediate unilateral nuclear disarmament on the UK as soon as Scotland votes for independence are closer to hard-core Brexiteers than they understand. @iainmacwhirter
heraldscotland.com/news/18896835.…
2) If Scotland simply orders nuclear weapons out without giving the rUK time to decide what to do, they will cripple the negotiations between Scotland and rUK as a whole, its like Britain's Brexiteers trying to order the EU to do what it wants.
3) such a policy would put Scotland in a far weaker position in the negotiations, and could be disastrous. Scotland will be the weaker power in independence negotiations, it cant afford to try and order rUK around
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
1) Just read through the Biden-Harris statement about the President-Elects discussions with Macron, Merkel, Martin and Johnson. The good news for the UK is that Johnson made the cut (though it is interesting that his phone call is listed last, after that with the Taoiseach)
2) A reading of the text shows actually how Johnson is being warned by the new administration. Those who are trying to argue that the change to Biden is a good thing for Brexit are really grasping at straws
3) The transcripts make two things really clear. The first is that the Trump anti-EU positioning is dead. What people who talk about the erratic nature of the Trump presidency miss is that he did represent a long-term view of some on the right in US foreign policy
Read 11 tweets
10 Nov
A quick thread on the election result--once again on how it is the non-religious who are the crucial voting block. In other words, its the heathens that won it for Biden.
first off--its becoming clearer that the key demographic shift in this election was the movement of white men (particularly college educated) to back Biden.

ft.com/content/69f320…
there definitely does seem to have been a small movement of African-American and Hispanic voters towards Trump, but this was more than made up for by the movement of whites who had backed Biden in 2016 to Biden. Image
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
Been accused of being an apologist for Scottish independence. As a form of response I will try to do the UK government’s job for them in what I will call: save the union in one step.
One of the great problems the U.K. government has it that they’ve been so obsessed with a particular form of English, Brexit based identity that they have missed that much of Scotland has a strong European identity
To be frank much of Scotland is instinctively siding with the EU against the U.K. government in these negotiations. That is a profoundly unhealthy situation for the U.K.
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
Last tweet on this issue but @LeaskyHT has hit on a great question. Why has support for independence exploded. I can take a guess as someone who has lived in Scotland for 24 years, though was not born a Scot.
Its probably the same identity politics that have worked for Brexit, but in reverse. Scots had, perhaps more than they expected, come to see themselves as European as much if not more than British. This is the case in particular for the younger generation (people Ive taught)
The reaction to Brexit was therefore far more emotionally powerful than expected, and lead many to question the whole point of the UK state. This has been exacerbated by the terrible peformance of the conservative governments, which have been antagonistic towards Europe
Read 5 tweets

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