Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

A background to why I tweeted about Mincemeat. It starts from the fact that the invasion of Italy was not in the original plans for 1943. Coming out of Casablanca, the US and UK had agreed the following:

1) There would be no invasion of France in 1943
2) One mediterranean Island would be invaded (probably Sicily)
3) The CBO would get priority for air assets
4) The Battle of the Atlantic would be won

this is worth noting because the Allied leaders felt no need to approve an invasion of Italy to be seen to be active.

The British were keen to tempt the Americans to invade Italy or do another mediterranean operation, not for domestic politics, but for their (particularly Churchill's) view of the best way to defeat Germany and preserve the British empire

The actual decision to invade Italy was made in quite a rush in July-August 1943 in response to what seemed like the swift collapse of Fascist Italy. It made the US join with the Brits because they thought getting into Southern Italy would not be particularly costly

There was even hope that they could get to Northern Italy quickly. And there was great hope that the air bases in the Foggia area would be valuable.

So the invasion of Italy was a short term decision made on rather hopeful grounds. Mincemeat marginally makes the decision more likely as it makes the invasion of Sicily marginally easier.