1) Just read through the Biden-Harris statement about the President-Elects discussions with Macron, Merkel, Martin and Johnson. The good news for the UK is that Johnson made the cut (though it is interesting that his phone call is listed last, after that with the Taoiseach)
https://twitter.com/Transition46/status/1326273588140322816
2) A reading of the text shows actually how Johnson is being warned by the new administration. Those who are trying to argue that the change to Biden is a good thing for Brexit are really grasping at straws
3) The transcripts make two things really clear. The first is that the Trump anti-EU positioning is dead. What people who talk about the erratic nature of the Trump presidency miss is that he did represent a long-term view of some on the right in US foreign policy
4) This view is that the EU was competitor not a partner; that the EU should be seen as something to be contained or weakened. This was widely held by people like Bolton before 2016 and regularly argued in places like the National Review nationalreview.com/2020/01/why-br…
5) Biden was relentless in these calls that the EU is a partner--even saying it to Johnson. That is a pivot back to a centrist poss-1945 consensus, where the US pushed european unity as a means of supporting a power bloc that could be an ally.
6) Biden is saying this need for an ally is stronger than ever (and it really is as the US is in relative decline). The US cant afford to treat the EU as a competitor--it needs a revitalized NATO and EU (the strength of both is combined in the transcripts).
7) The other point was the inclusion of Ireland in the call. This is as meaningful as anything and not a romantic statement. By listing Martin ahead of Johnson he's telling the UK dont mess with the GFA Irish border
8) So these calls are a warning to Johnson and the UK. You better negotiate a Brexit deal that doesnt lead to a rupture with the EU and doesnt antagonize Ireland. If you do--great we will be friends. Otherwise a cold relationship awaits.
9) Biden in making a hard Brexit almost impossible unless the UK really wants a rupture with the US.
9) final thing to add is the Biden team clearly values Merkel the most as a leader and shares her vision. She is praised personally for her leadership while Macron and Johnson receive no personal endorsement. That’s revealing
Meant to say No Deal Brexit. Looks like whatever happens we are getting a pretty hard Brexit.
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