Keep being asked questions about meeting/travel over the holidays that people want to hear an emotionally reassuring & comforting answer. I can't do that as a public health scientist right now & have to be straight, even if unpopular.
COVID doesn't care that it's Christmas or Thanksgiving. It spreads in indoor, poorly ventilated settings esp households. If you want to safely see family, check local prevalence, get outside for walks, ventilate indoor settings & isolate for 2 weeks before seeing vulnerable ppl.
You can also get tested (Boots, etc) before seeing family/travel but virus incubation period makes this tricky. Could test negative and be infectious & positive the next day. 2 negative tests several days apart can help mitigate risk.
Travel concerning esp with Tier system. Movement from higher to lower prevalence areas means we are likely to see all Tiers going upwards & heading towards national-type lockdown in early 2021. Protecting low prevalence means restricting travel. Virus moves when people move.
Final tweet: I really feel for NHS doctors, nurses, support staff & cleaners who have to show up each day & deal with whatever comes their way. It's like leaving your goalie alone on the pitch. It's a losing game. We all need to play our part to keep burden off health services.
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Top German scientists: 1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short. 2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them. 3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus. mpg.de/15426163/stell…
They suggest that what works is: 1. Test/trace/isolate 2. Mask-wearing 3. Distancing 4. Travel restrictions 5. Identifying & stopping super-spreading events. 5. Good guidance to public on what is risky & not.
Receiving notes from those w/ risk factors (asthma, overweight, hypertension, cancer survivors, diabetes) or elderly who are saddened by their lives being portrayed as worthless (ie acceptable loss, would die anyways). Please remember this is not the view of the silent majority.
Things not looking good in the UK (massive understatement). We all need to act like we could have COVID-19 & minimise close physical contact with those outside our household. Need to avoid awful decisions about COVID v non COVID harm.
And if hospitals start filling up with patients arriving needing emergency care, going to put other NHS services at risk. Everyone loses if numbers continue to increase.
I won’t say much more bc I’m sure everyone is sick of my repeating of the same message for months now. But I truly hope we will not pay for all the summer holidays abroad with winter lockdowns. nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opi…
Questions I get from young people: 1. Am I immune from this virus? -> No, you are likely to have mild symptoms, but this is a nasty virus & you could face a long recovery. You don't want to get COVID- you could have an underlying health issues you don't know about. (1/n)
2. Should I just get infected & get an 'immunity passport'? -> We still don't know how long immunity lasts, & there have been some instances of documented re-infection. We don't yet know if 2nd time will be asymptomatic re-infection or more severe & how rare/common it is. (2/n).
3. If only young people are getting COVID, then what's the problem? -> No country has been able to fully shield the elderly/vulnerable as they live with us & among us. Vulnerable young = hypertension, diabetes, asthma, overweight, cancer survivors, immuno-compromised. (3/n)
On a panel & was asked if COVID-19 will help world prepare for the 'real' big one. I actually think SARS-CoV-2 is the big 'Disease X' experts warned about. We shouldn't underestimate the current crisis which has no simple solution.
If it were as lethal as MERS (33% CFR) then all gov'ts would aim to eliminate. If it had similar health outcomes to flu then gov'ts let it go. It falls in-between leading to muddled strategies, conflicted scientific advice & in the process, economy/health both taking a hit.
The challenge is to re-open economy/society while controlling COVID-19. Robust test/trace/isolate supported by face coverings, hygiene & border checks can help. But 'super-spreading' events still a big challenge. E.g. 91 people testing positive from night at club in Barcelona.
To re-open safely, universities have to: 1. Test all students on arrival & 5 days later 2. Mandatory use of face coverings 3. Ventilation of classrooms 4. Ensure monitoring of students during quarantine with app & check-ins (to ensure compliance) 5. Clear outbreak response plan.
Latest alleged comments by Pompeo (US Sec of State) in the UK are blame-shifting- Trump administration rattled by upcoming 2020 Elections with its appalling COVID-19 response resulting in a high number of cases, deaths & unemployment. Are these attacks on WHO fair? (thread)
WHO was established in 1948 as the chief director and coordinator of international health work in the United Nations. It has 3 functions with outbreaks.
First, its International Health Regulations require countries to report outbreaks (China did on 30th Dec), share this info with the world (5th Jan) & it can raise the highest level of alarm-PHEIC (30th Jan). At that point up to countries to prepare (or not to prepare)