+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson trying to remove Iain Carter from his position as head of research at Conservative HQ...

...Carter, you may recall, was Carrie Symond’s boss when she was forced to resign in 2018 for abusing her expenses.
2/

Rumour is that Boris Johnson is trying to manoeuvre Ross Kempsell in as Carter’s replacement.

Ross Kempsell has no experience in policy research - however he is Johnson’s regular tennis partner.
3/

Carrie Symonds has held a grudge against Iain Carter ever since her usage of taxis under false names of junior members of staff was exposed.

Symonds used taxis for her commuting & trips to bars & restaurants costing CCHQ thousands of pounds annually.
4/

Ross Kempsell isn’t just Johnson’s tennis partner - he’s part of Symond’s close circle of young friends who regularly attend private parties together at Downing St organised by Carrie.

Should Kempsell obtain this position - it would represent a remarkable promotion.
5/

Much of Kempsell’s young career has been with TalkRadio, Guido Fawkes & the Times.

There is now considerable disquiet in the parliamentary conservative party over his, and others like him, rise to position of influence.

/ends.

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More from @nicktolhurst

27 Nov
Yet another reason why this idea Johnson can somehow “hide Brexit pain inside COVID” won’t work.

A short thread.
2/

1st recessions - it seems mean to say this but many recessions leave most people completely untouched - indeed many people benefit. Most people don’t lose their jobs & IR tend to go down.

In other words economic pain is not equally dealt around.
3/

If Brexit causes a 5% decline of economic growth compared to what it would do in EU - then some people will be utterly unaffected while other sectors will collapse and some people will lose their jobs.
Read 9 tweets
21 Nov
+UPDATE+

Russia has its 1st official new aristocrat since the fall of the Tsar over century ago.

In a surprise move Vladimir Putin & Boris Johnson agreed to confer Baron Lebedev's barony to include Siberia in the Russian Federation.
2/

It cannot be overestimated just how powerful a message this sounds out internally in Russia.

Boris Johnson is using the most sacred of constitutional symbolism to tie in Russian oligarchy elite within British society.
3/

Lebedev's family is intimately tied within the KGB/FSB elites.

Boris Johnson looking increasingly like he's following the pro Russia policy of 2017 Donald Trump.

Huge significance within Russian society.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
+UPDATE+

Sir Alex Allan resigned his position partially because Boris Johnson personally interfered into the report into bullying by Sir Alex Allan in an effort to cover up Priti Patel's behaviour.
2/

Whole story now falling apart.

Expect this in the news over the next 12 hours
3/ Sir Alex & Johnson at odds on Patel behaviour since months.

Sir Alex clearly viewed Patel's behaviour as a breach of the ministerial code - hence resignation now upon release.
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov
As I keep saying - forget the debates on TV...very few people in the conservative establishment be it media, the Conservative Party or business believe in Brexit now.

The debates are phony.

So why are we still doing Brexit?
The answer is simple...& has little to do with Europe.
2/

The answer lies in the way British society is structured.

We have no constitution but what we do have is a ruling establishment that is amongst the most stable in western world - this is the UKs constitution.

The same schools, families, university clubs since centuries.
3/

One thing many Brits dont appreciate:
The Tories are far more infused into society than a European conservative party - these are recent inventions.

The Tories ARE the ruling elite - the CDU is just a party.

& Brexit is not just a policy - its a reflection of culture.
Read 11 tweets
11 Nov
PREDICTION

UK will drop all barriers to european immigration to UK next year.

You think this sounds crazy, right?
Well here’s why...
2/

It’s always worth looking at things which “pass under the radar” - especially when big events are happening elsewhere.

So what’s happened is this:
Over the course of the year the UK govt believes 800 000 mostly foreign born people have left UK.

Think about that figure....
3/

It suits govt to believe this is due entirely to COVID but this seems implausible.
But even if true it doesn’t make much difference.

This is in fact at a level that is equivalent to an historical episode of war depopulation.

It’s huge.
But we haven’t noticed cause of COVID.
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
+US UPDATE+

The leading 4 civilian appointed members of the US Defence establishment was fired by Donald Trump over the last 48 hours.
2/

There include (but are not limited to):

The Defence Secretary
The top Pentagon Policy official
The Defence Intelligence Chief
The Defence Secretary’s Chief of Staff

This does seem rather excessive.
3/

There seems to be some reports of aides/supporters of Michael Flynn being brought into the intelligence/defence establishment by Trump this week.

Looking for confirmation.
Read 7 tweets

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