Yet another reason why this idea Johnson can somehow “hide Brexit pain inside COVID” won’t work.
A short thread.
A short thread.
2/
1st recessions - it seems mean to say this but many recessions leave most people completely untouched - indeed many people benefit. Most people don’t lose their jobs & IR tend to go down.
In other words economic pain is not equally dealt around.
1st recessions - it seems mean to say this but many recessions leave most people completely untouched - indeed many people benefit. Most people don’t lose their jobs & IR tend to go down.
In other words economic pain is not equally dealt around.
3/
If Brexit causes a 5% decline of economic growth compared to what it would do in EU - then some people will be utterly unaffected while other sectors will collapse and some people will lose their jobs.
If Brexit causes a 5% decline of economic growth compared to what it would do in EU - then some people will be utterly unaffected while other sectors will collapse and some people will lose their jobs.
4/
You might argue this will help U.K. govt if some relatively unscathed by Brexit but it won’t - and here’s why:
Hunan nature.
You might argue this will help U.K. govt if some relatively unscathed by Brexit but it won’t - and here’s why:
Hunan nature.
5/
As anyone knows who’s ever sat at a dinner party with a man with a modest job describes how smart he is that his house now worth 500K..
..Humans tend to ascribe their success to their their own ingenuity or hard work...but look to blame their failures on others or bad luck.
As anyone knows who’s ever sat at a dinner party with a man with a modest job describes how smart he is that his house now worth 500K..
..Humans tend to ascribe their success to their their own ingenuity or hard work...but look to blame their failures on others or bad luck.
6/
Every job or industry loss that can be plausibly traced to Brexit..will be.
But no one - literally no one - who keeps their job will say Brexit really helped them.
This is inherently dangerous for a Govt who’s credibility is intrinsically tied to “Brexit being a success”.
Every job or industry loss that can be plausibly traced to Brexit..will be.
But no one - literally no one - who keeps their job will say Brexit really helped them.
This is inherently dangerous for a Govt who’s credibility is intrinsically tied to “Brexit being a success”.
7/
Unlike COVID Johnson can’t hide behind an “act of God” - he’ll be uniquely vulnerable to every job loss, every insolvent firm, every Kent traffic jam - because even when Brexit is only one contributing factor he cannot be shown to be heartless in response to his own policy.
Unlike COVID Johnson can’t hide behind an “act of God” - he’ll be uniquely vulnerable to every job loss, every insolvent firm, every Kent traffic jam - because even when Brexit is only one contributing factor he cannot be shown to be heartless in response to his own policy.
8/
This may be another reason why Johnson is holding out on state aid in EU talks - he knows that when some industries & firms go bust he won’t be able to turn round & say “Brexit will be fine in 10 years - you just need to pay the price now”.
Indeed it may even be true that...
This may be another reason why Johnson is holding out on state aid in EU talks - he knows that when some industries & firms go bust he won’t be able to turn round & say “Brexit will be fine in 10 years - you just need to pay the price now”.
Indeed it may even be true that...
9/
It may even be the case that some industries & firms have incentives to blame Brexit...for COVID damage as it’s easier to get additional govt support that way.
Whatever happens the idea COVID will stop the losers of Brexit complaining is for the birds.
/ends.
It may even be the case that some industries & firms have incentives to blame Brexit...for COVID damage as it’s easier to get additional govt support that way.
Whatever happens the idea COVID will stop the losers of Brexit complaining is for the birds.
/ends.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
