When threatened, incumbents always turn to influence of governments to try and slow adoption of new technology through onerous regulation
Using antiquated regulation from and old technology regime to attempt to slow down innovation has been a losing strategy for centuries
While threat of such regulation does cause short-term consternation & fear, which have a negative impact on prices of assets related to new technology, long-term outcome does not change, disruption occurs
Pace of disruption has accelerated w/ networks & decentralized systems
Current situation in #Bitcoin is similar to China “Ban” in 2017
From Jan-Sept, $BTC has increased 4X+ from $1000 to $4,500 and adoption was accelerating
China attempted to ban Exchanges, leading to a sharp 20% correction to $3,600 and global conversations that #Bitcoin was dead
#Bitcoin is a global, borderless, decentralized network that facilitates transfer of value and that network is not governed by any one nation state
Exchange activity simply moved to other countries, adoption continued and prices recovered quickly, rising 5X over balance of year
Every asset has fundamental Value based on metrics specific to the asset & a Price based on level where 2 individuals agree to exchange some amount of that asset in real time
Investors are long-term holders focused on Value & Speculators are short-term holders focused on Price
Investors drive long term value, Speculators drive current price
During periods of rapid change there can be meaningful movements of price away from fundamental value
In those periods, price is vulnerable to shocks triggered by threats such as China plan or @stevenmnuchin1 plan
When prices dislocate downwards in response to perceived threat the following maxim applies
Investing is the only business I know that when things go on sale, people run out of the store...
In summary, Administration is paid handsomely by financial services industry to create impediments to competition so current rumors not surprising or unexpected
#Bitcoin network is global, decentralized system that will overcome this threat (just like others before)
Highly likely that overly harsh response to #COVID19 threat causes extreme economic pain far beyond expectations and pushes already perilous global economic situation over edge into deep Recession (likely even Depression) 2/
@patricksouth@Twitter@APompliano There won’t be a V-shaped recovery and even a U is long shot as will be very challenging to restart global economic flywheel in a world bathed in Nationalism, Populism and Trade Wars rescuing benefits of Globalization.
Many of hardest hit sectors (Pomp calls Corona Infected) 3/
1/ There are really no words for incredible stupidity coming out of #PTBarnumOfOurTime’s mouth these days (other than desperate people say/do desperate things)...
#ItsACar! Cars are mechanical systems and when they are used more they wear out faster and depreciate faster.
2/ the idea that a rapidly depreciating vehicle would appreciate is beyond ridiculous. The only cars that appreciate are those that happen to NOT get driven, worn out, wrecked etc. and become scarce... we have all heard the story of the 57 Chevy under tarp in barn after Vietnam
3/ and the ridiculous concept that only #Tesla will have robotaxis is even worse as shows no concept of basic economics... although #ElonAlmighty has already shown that in his inability to understand basic supply/demand and basic accounting...
1/ Amazing to watch people spend time searching for a historical example of when someone was wrong to make a point that they are wrong about a current event
Makes no sense, as events are independent and past decision & outcome have no bearing on current decision & future outcome
2/Great Investors are wrong more than bad investors
Primarily b/c they make more decisions & take more positions. Bad investors are afraid to act because they’re afraid of being wrong
Great investors don’t care about being wrong because they know that best only right high 50%s
3/Great Investors don’t care about being wrong, only poor investors obsess about being wrong
Great investors understand it doesn’t matter if you’re right or wrong, what matters is how much $ make when right & how much $ lose when wrong