At 2245
PM’s tier-drops: most severe restrictions lasting perhaps months with @lewisgoodall..also is mass testing way out of Tier 3, the “moonshot”, but we hear reservations...
@markurban01 back in Salisbury NHS pandemic winter pressures
@helentbbc on Brexit fish and vet shortage
Here is Lewis on the tier system and some local expert reservations about mass testing as a solution...
Here’s statement from local health chiefs we reported - boils down to - what are actual published results of Liverpool pilot? How effective are these tests when not in medical hands, & without being used as originally intended for those with symptoms?

Here’s my interview with one of those local Directors of Public Health on that issue of mass testing effectiveness:
The document quoted from in question above on original intended use of the tests for those with Covid symptoms, and by “trained clinical lab personnel” cdn.website-editor.net/6f54caea7c6f4a…
Labour frontbencher James Murray stressing that Opposition calling for more support, will consult with Vallance/ Whitty and see economic impact documents before deciding whether to back Government in tier vote next week:
UCL health expert and iSage member Professor Pagel backed the Governments new, more restrictive tiers, tho expressed some concerns about Christmas relaxation

The Defence Select chair and senior Tory MP Tobias Ellwood is very concerned about the economic hit from the tier system though, and wants to know why the Nightingale hospitals aren’t being used:
And spoke to our Helen Thomas about who is going to fold on fish as Brexit trade talks restart, and where that leaves food exporters now having to fill out reams of paperwork, requiring vets sign off, at a time when vets say there aren’t enough of them:
This is the statement from British Vets association about the number of vets required for these Export HEalth Certificates:
Linking two answers together...
huge amount of focus on what UK fishing fleet can take out of the sea - that’s what sticking point is and those are voices most commonly heard.

Can often get v different take from other parts of fishing industry relying on exporting that catch
Anyway - Lewis is mole-like hero of Friday night - who managed to complete/ ad-lib/ recall from the depths of his memory his script for his video screen explainer, after breaking his glasses about 5 seconds before going live, and not being able to see very much at all...

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More from @faisalislam

29 Nov
interesting Sunday reads on fish negotiations - useful context on quantum here - talking about 700k tonnes of fish worth half a billion £ a year fished by eu27 in Uk EEZ. So EU reportedly proposed restoring 18% to UK, others say UK wants 80% - argument over £300m of 🐠 0.01% GDP Image
Not difficult to see route to compromise here...obviously with no deal all £500m comes back to UK, though UK would then lose about £100m of rights to fish in EU EEZ too..unclear if UK has fleet to get the fish.

No deal would see some hefty tariffs on actually exporting the catch
Clearly using above stats can refashion this argument for EU coastal states too - where its even smaller an economic factor. Eg France’s gets £171m worth of fish from UK waters - assuming the range of negotiations 18%-80% we are talking £90m of fish, or €100m / 0.004% French GDP
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
Second half of Spending Review extra time - at the IFS.
@pjtheeconomist pointing out that “precisely zero” additional Covid spending (eg for vaccine/ test & trace) allocated beyond next year’s “whopping £55bn”...
IFS on council tax: “Chancellor has chosen to reduce support to local authorities and has given them the ability to raise council tax by 5% instead. If they do, and they’ll mostly probably need to, that will increase annual tax bills by an average of around £70 per household”.
IFS on partial public sector pay freeze:
- will hit graduate public sector workers in London & SE, least we’ll paid relative to private sector
- Two part time teachers on £20k will each get £250 pay rise but a full time teacher doing same job gets nothing
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
On Spending Review analysis call for @resfoundation @TorstenBell pondering the Maradona theory of economics first floated by the former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King - basically related to being able to walk straight through defenders if they expect you to go round them...
Here’s Mervyn King’s seminal analysis of the Maradona theory of interest rates from 15 years ago... “the truly remarkable thing is that Maradona ran in a straight line”...
OBR’s new chief Richard Hughes contrasts the deficit spike after financial crisis - mainly tax related - with this year’s extraordinary fiscal support “almost like Beveridge overnight”...
Read 10 tweets
25 Nov
Chancellor announces initial £18bn directly for testing, PPE, vaccines next year #SR20
11.3% fall in the economy this year forecast for this year... (largest for three centuries) growing by 5.5% next year, 6.6% in 2022, then 2.3%, 1.7% and 1.8% in the following years...

By 2025 economy expected to be 3% smaller than expected in MArch #SR20
Government borrowing £394bn this year says forecast - that is 19% of GDP for this one year’s borrowing...

Not far off the official figure four the entire historic national debt in 1990 at 21%
Read 11 tweets
24 Nov
spoke to Mayor of G Manchester @andyburnham for #BBCNewsSix ahead of SR - he warned that infrastructure not enough, citizens need help with lower costs eg bus fares now, and that Covid had “levelled down” UK with North now facing “worse than 80s crisis” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Burnham: “north of England has been hit hardest by COVID because of failure to invest.. we could be looking at another period like the 1980s in the north of England, coming out of the COVID crisis, the 2020s could even be worse than the 1980s”
He did welcome the Green Book changes that should direct more infrastructure spending North, though detail on that tomorrow. Said the “bias against the North” goes back decades and he saw it as Chief Sec when he asked for similar schemes at the time of London Crossrail funding..
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
Let me tell you just two* stories which might have wider resonance about a special person who we were saying bye to today... Dadu, Mukul, Chow to some, to me... Dad.

A few years ago, I spoke at the 500th anniversary of my old school. trying to capture spirit of Manchester... ImageImage
I spoke of Dad, an Indian Muslim student, being given his first career push in 1960s by an open minded Jewish accountant. It turned out he Yitz was in the audience. They reconnected, had big joint clan dinner in Mcr.
He gave a eulogy today.

& I’m godfather to his granddaughter Image
Dad was very proud to be British, Indian, Muslim, Bengali and Mancunian, saw no contradictions... born into rural Bengal still under British control, first memory the RAF flying over his village on the way to Burma in WW2, his dad’s tannery supplying leather for army boots... Image
Read 6 tweets

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