Thread by @faisalislam

interesting Sunday reads on fish negotiations - useful context on quantum here - talking about 700k tonnes of fish worth half a billion £ a year fished by eu27 in Uk EEZ. So EU reportedly proposed restoring 18% to UK, others say UK wants 80% - argument over £300m of 🐠 0.01% GDP

Not difficult to see route to compromise here...obviously with no deal all £500m comes back to UK, though UK would then lose about £100m of rights to fish in EU EEZ too..unclear if UK has fleet to get the fish.

No deal would see some hefty tariffs on actually exporting the catch

Clearly using above stats can refashion this argument for EU coastal states too - where its even smaller an economic factor. Eg France’s gets £171m worth of fish from UK waters - assuming the range of negotiations 18%-80% we are talking £90m of fish, or €100m / 0.004% French GDP

Actually once you net off the reciprocal reduced quota for UK fleet in EU EEZ - it would be perfectly plausible that the negotiation that might scupper a trade deal is over a net amount of fish worth about £350m ... (a year though, not a week 🐠 🐟 🎣)

economics editors tend to view everything through an economic lens.

https://twitter.com/jonnyjarre/status/1332912881038487553

thread replies mainly people relitigating Brexit... calculation above is sovereignty neutral. UK will regain 100% control, but trade negotiation now is over what proportion UKG decides EU fleet should continue to be allowed to fish. calculation puts a value on negotiation range..

Reading between lines of Foreign Sec on Marr / he said EU should accept point of principle- be pragmatic about UK sovereignty & control..perhaps could be seen to suggest EU should start negotiation from having lost all its quota in UK & work up, rather than status quo & work down

Many people rightly pointing to the point that much of the existing UK quota sold off to EU owned vessels - my colleagues at @BBCRealityCheck have done some v interesting calcs on this for English catch - 55% of it in 2019: bbc.co.uk/news/52420116