New efforts w mass testing in Liverpool have dropped incidence by 2/3rds in weeks

Not a “clean” pilot study of rapid tests bc other interventions also started at same time.

There are a few items that I’m not so aligned with that they are doing...

1/ washingtonpost.com/world/europe/l…
First I think it’s great that they are using rapid tests for asymptomatic screening! This absolutely needs to happen - particularly as evidence builds that transmission peaks before symptom onset.

So that is great!

2/
Also, for those in the US - know that UK is purchasing their rapid tests from a California based company!! Shipping 1 million tests to the UK for mass rapid test screening.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Americans could also reap the benefits of this American innovation... :/

3/
What I am not aligned on is the decision not to offer these at home.

The rollout of these by soldiers and others increases the program costs dramatically, which leads to a lot of people feeling that this is not the best use of funds.

It also leads to other issues...

4/
Besides excessive cost of having the simple rapid tests be administered by someone else, it increases disparity in access to the test.

The moment someone has to go out of their way, this dramatically cuts down on access... further disenfranchising the disenfranchised

5/
It also greatly limits frequency with which these tests can be used! For a fraction of the cost, the tests could be delivered to homes via postal service and people could use them 1x-2x /wk. Access would be equitable and effectiveness greatly increased!!! And cost decreased

6/
To sum...

Very excited to see this program being out to use.

But would really like to see it be more distributed. It’s OK to put the PUBLIC back into public health! People can do this on their own!

(One more item about the article...)

7/
The article 👆says these tests miss up to 50% of positive people.

These people are no longer infectious! We must stop comparing Antigen tests to PCR.

The tests detect >90% of PCR positive people who are currently infectious! Perhaps >95%.

The concern is outdated.

8/8
Finally - in the first tweet I said it’s not a clean pilot study bc other interventions are also ongoing. I didn’t mean to imply that those should not be happening. YES THEY SHOULD. I was simply preempting inevitable comments that it’s not the testing alone, etc.

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More from @michaelmina_lab

23 Nov
Rapid Antigen tests are very sensitive at Ct < 30

Above which-too little live virus to detect

Ppl worry transmission could occur at Ct > 30 and thus missed by Ag test

Transmissibility is NOT BINARY
Possible at 34? Yes
Likely? No.

This graph helps place Cts in context!

1/
(If do not see the full graph above - please click on it)

Easy to forget Ct values are LOG scale

They place as much emphasis on an increase of 1000 viral particles as they do an increase of 1,000,000,000!!

2/
But when we change from a Ct scale to a scale that shows the number of viruses withouth "zooming in" on the low end, we see just how stark a different 20-25 is versus 30-35.

3/
Read 8 tweets
22 Nov
@DrEricDing @VirusesImmunity @PeterHotez This is a great question

The vaccine is not necessarily a more trusted source of immunity. Both an infection AND a vaccine are likely to induce good immune responses. All of the information we have suggests that immunity to infection for this virus is... well... as expected

1/
@DrEricDing @VirusesImmunity @PeterHotez However, to the questioners point, we are hoping the vaccines will induce potent and long lasting immunity. The vaccines are designed specifically to direct our immune response to look in the right spot - vs searching all over the virus...

2/
@DrEricDing @VirusesImmunity @PeterHotez The leading vaccines are all designed to induce, primarily, an antibody response that specifically blocks virus entry. To do this, they display a piece of the spike protein - the key to unlock entry into the cell.

3/
Read 15 tweets
21 Nov
(SHORT) Thread
NEW paper on RAPID TESTS

Another terrific study showing rapid tests WORK & can be key tools to combat this virus

Of 897 people w high virus (Ct<25): 888 were detected w Rapid Test

Sens: 99.1%
Spec: 99.5%

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

*repeat tweet b/c typo in last
THINK

If these ppl were screening, this would be 888 INFECTIOUS ppl who'd KNOW they’re contagious–and be empowered to act IMMEDIATELY Instead

In USA today, these 888 INFECTIOUS ppl would simply NOT be tested OR find out ~3-7 days later -> often AFTER contagiousness clears!

2/
In this study there was a specificity of 99.5%!

In other words, out of 1000 tests, 5 people would be called falsely positive

This is OK–simply test again- w another rapid confirmatory test that should come with the first test. Those 5 would NOT be likely to be pos on both

3/
Read 8 tweets
20 Nov
Right... lets keep focusing on PCR lab based medical testing for a public health war

A public health test with a:
-24 hour delay is just OK
-48 hour delay really losing its use
-72 hour delay almost irrelevant for transmission
-96 hour delay - waste

cnbc.com/2020/11/18/cov…
2/ We have to recognize that the tools we need to fight this war are sitting right in front of us.

Blocked by a medical enterprise that can't see a forest, just trees

A government that fails to recognize the gravity of the situation we are in

3/ Some people say rapid antigen testing is not good enough. "Some infected people might slip by!"

First: Essentially everyone is "slipping by" right now. People are either tested post-transmissible stage or getting results too late to act.

Most are just not getting tested!
Read 12 tweets
19 Nov
South Dakota

68,671 cases
Pop: 885,000
HIGH test +ve %; i.e. not nearly enough testing

I'd be surprised if catching >1 in 5 cases

If so, does 68,671 => 343,000 cases?

And if so... 39% infected...is SD nearing Herd Immunity?

Should serosurvey much of SD to understand if so.
Note: It's tough to know what the true detection rate is. Is it 1 in 2, 1 in 5, 1 in 8 detected?

We don't know for sure.
Either way... SD has a LOT of it's pop infected.

Since it's one of highest per capita states, will be imprtnt to monitor this state
And no - I am NOT suggesting herd immunity as an option. I'm simply stating the numbers up there and suggesting that we monitor to better understand what has and what will happen.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
For anyone wondering what a best-in-class rapid antigen test looks like. This is the @AbbottNews PanBio rapid antigen test.

If you lift up the plastic top (which is cheap) it is a simply paper strip (that white part with the red line)....

1/
These are exceptionally cheap w/ very good accuracy to detect people when they are carrying infectious virus

Extremely easy to use
Simple design

I suggest a model where you reuse the plastic shell (like contact lenses) and just change the paper strip. Simple.

2/
It is really unfortunate though that this particular test is NOT sold in the US. It is sold outside of the United States.

Nevertheless - this is to show that THESE TESTS EXIST.

The US Government should be making them in the 10's of millions daily.

Instead, Americans are dying
Read 4 tweets

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