President Biden will have an economic dream team. I am thrilled for him, for them, and most importantly, for the country. One tweet for each member, starting with the most important economic agency (that I ever ran):
Ceci Rouse: An outstanding economist & wonderful person, she brings deep knowledge & commitment to the most important issues the country faces including how to raise wages, reduce discrimination and improve education. She is also experienced with previous stints at NEC and CEA.
Jared Bernstein: A stalwart of economic policymaking. Jared is a keen analyst and passionate advocate for working people who is also trusted and respected across the political spectrum. He brings macro, trade, labor & more to the role.
Heather Boushey: Has built a phenomenal organization (the Washington Center for Equitable Growth) that is at the nexus of academic research and DC policymaking, exactly what the CEA should be. Heather has been a leading champion of inclusive growth and working families.
Neera Tanden: Knows politics and policy, brilliantly balances & communicates about both. She will lead a powerful OMB that is oriented around advancing the President's most important goals, including tackling climate change, reducing inequality, and fostering growth.
Janet Yellen: Uniquely equipped for this moment. She has made monumental contributions to understanding & policy on the biggest issues of the day, from economic recovery to climate change. I can't wait to see what she will accomplish as Treasury Secretary.
Wally Adeyemo: A major force in international economic policymaking in the Obama Administration, Wally rose rapidly through the ranks as one of the most talented economic policymakers of his generation. He is smart, effective and also kind.
Congratulations to all six, I'm looking forward to further appointments. The country has big economic challenges, President Biden has ambitious economic goals, and now he will have an amazing group of women and men who can help him achieve those goals.
Brian Deese (bonus pick): Confirmed by multiple news sources. A brilliant leader, gets the best out of everyone he works with, kind and generous, a leader in everything from autos and housing to climate and budget. Will help keep the entire team together.

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More from @jasonfurman

20 Nov
I did a talk in the excellent @MarkusEconomist Academy series yesterday on “Do Debt and Deficits Matter Anymore.” You can watch the video, see the slides, or read this longish thread for a summary.


dropbox.com/s/lb2btgbadotw…
Short version my points:

1. Don’t worry re debt in current emergency. But do ask whether scarce resources meet a cost-benefit test.

2. Best metric is real net interest/GDP, look ahead ~one decade

3. Target 1% of GDP in real net interest/GDP, which is 150-200% of GDP in debt
Before getting to my points some context. Macro policy in 2018-19 was extraordinary, more like the response to a moderate to severe recession. That this was needed to generate reasonable growth is due to long-term decline in interest rates.
Read 20 tweets
14 Nov
We are 10m jobs short, virus is spreading, millions are a weeks away from losing benefits, we should not wait any longer to act. The idea that we can get a better deal if we delay until February is both wishful thinking and ignores the suffering now. nytimes.com/2020/11/14/bus…
No legislation signed after 1/20/2021 can help anyone in November or December of 2020 or even much of January 2021.

Also means schools get nothing now etc.

So delaying until next year by definition can’t get more for people when they most need it.
If your goal is to get more for people in Feb/Mar/Apr/etc. next year also have more leverage now: (1) McConnell more reluctant to give Biden a win; (2) vaccine distn will strengthen hand of arguing to just wait and (3) pressure of GA won’t motivate McConnell.
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
My guess is my corner of twitter agrees with the substance of my latest @WSJopinion arguing for more stimulus/relief. So let me flesh out the underlying political argument--everyone will need to compromise to get this done and better this year than next. wsj.com/articles/the-e…
My comments are filled up with blame for President Trump and Leader McConnell. A lot of that is justified. But blaming them, however justifiably, does not help anyone if nothing ever passes. Instead need to figure out how to pass something. Which is going to require compromises.
Maybe the Democrats win both Georgia Senate seats in which case they could come back and try for more. But when you're worried about a problem should place a lot of emphasis on making it as unbad as possible in the bad case not as good as possible in the good case. So better now.
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
What reduces economic activity: (i) the virus leading people to choose to distance or (ii) government required distancing.

Research on services in March/April has found it is much more (i) than (ii) than many people thought.

BUT, mistake to think is always/everywhere 100% (i).
1. Manufacturing and construction mostly shutdown when it was required to and continued when it was allowed to. That is a smaller share of GDP than services but clearly a case of govt policies reducing economic activity (for better or worse, may be worth doing to save lives).
2. In some cases govt required social distancing may be like an investment that pays off: less economic activity today but better virus control & more activity in the future. In this case one would see a short-run tradeoff between activity & govt social distancing, but worth it.
Read 11 tweets
30 Oct
If we are not taking *some* steps (at the margin) to curb the virus that also hurt the economy then we are not doing enough to curb the virus.

It is also possible that our efforts to curb the virus help the economy (in total or on average).

(Possibly educational thread.)
In this case, as in many others where we have multiple objectives (think climate change and inequality, for example), we should do absolutely everything we can that is win-win. More masks and more testing might reduce the virus and help economic activity.

Many win-win policies.
In addition to everything that is win-win, we should also evaluate everything with a tradeoff and adopt those that save lives at an acceptable cost for the economy (e.g., closing indoor dining) and reject those that save lives at an unacceptable cost (e.g., halting construction).
Read 12 tweets
26 Oct
When economists frame a non-consensus view as obviously correct economics (or even worse "arithmetic"). It devalues the currency of consensus economic views. Take a stand and defend it, just don't claim obvious truth. Eg, @caseybmulligan on fiscal policy. nationalreview.com/2020/10/paul-k…
Casey argues UI and other transfers do not increase total demand because we cannot simply count the additional spending associated with them without also counting "the spending (both consumption and investment) of those who finance the government."
The CARES Act was not paid for w/ current tax increases. @caseybmulligan knows that but appears to be arguing in support of "Ricardian equivalence"--that it will be paid for by future tax increases & rational people anticipating those will cut back on their spending now.
Read 13 tweets

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