Thread by @charles_gaba

📣 MASSACHUSETTS: @HealthConnector reports 284.6K #ACA exchange enrollments; 97% have already paid their first premium:
acasignups.net/20/11/30/massa…

Long-time readers may recall "BUT HOW MANY HAVE *PAID*???" was a HUGE talking point back in 2014. The GOP was *obsessed* w/claiming that only 2/3 of ACA exchange enrollees paid their first premium.

This was always bullshit--it was at least 85% even that 1st, chaotic year. 1/

I wrote numerous analyses over the years showing that it was more like 90%...and last year, I was proven correct...by the Trump Admin of all sources: 2/
acasignups.net/19/08/16/five-…

There's been a lot of criticism over slashing the Open Enrollment Period down from 3 months to 45 days, but one upside from a data POV is that it makes it much easier to determine How Many Have Paid...because nearly 100% of enrollments now kick off starting in January. 3/

Even in the states w/deadlines extending into January, the vast bulk of their enrollees sign up for January coverage, so as long as you know the number of *effectuated* enrollees for January, comparing that vs. the number of QHP selections gives you a pretty close estimate. /END

⚠️ Update: To clarify, I’m NOT saying that shortening OEP that much is a good thing! It’s like saying that not allowing ballots received after Election Day (but postmarked by it) makes counting ballots easier. Technically it does, but is still not a good thing...