NEW—#GDP 2020 projections of @OECD countries. Hardest hit: 🇬🇧 🇦🇷.

🌎-4.2%
🇦🇺-3.8%
🇨🇦-5.4%
🇪🇺-7.5%
🇩🇪-5.5%
🇫🇷-9.1%
🇮🇹-9.1%
🇯🇵-5.3%
🇰🇷-1.1%
🇬🇧-11.2%
🇺🇸-3.7%
🇦🇷-12.9%
🇧🇷-6.0%
🇨🇳+1.8%
🇮🇳-9.9%
🇮🇩-2.4%
🇲🇽-9.2%
🇷🇺-4.3%
🇸🇦-5.1%
🇿🇦-8.1%
🇹🇷-1.3%
(HT @pitres)
oecd.org/economic-outlo…
2) New— @OECD #GDP 2021 projections.

📌Fast vacc➡️+$3 T

📌Slow vacc➡️-$4 T

🌎 4.2%
🇦🇺 3.2%
🇨🇦 3.5%
🇪🇺 3.6%
🇩🇪 2.8%
🇫🇷 6%
🇮🇹 4.3%
🇯🇵 2.3%
🇰🇷 2.8%
🇬🇧 4.2%
🇺🇸 3.2%
🇦🇷 3.7%
🇧🇷 2.6%
🇨🇳 8%
🇮🇳 7.9%
🇮🇩 4%
🇲🇽 3.6%
🇷🇺 2.8%
🇸🇦 3.2%
🇿🇦 3.1%
🇹🇷 2.9%

(HT @pitres) #EconomicOutlook #COVID19
3) If #COVID19 vaccinations rollout is slow, the effect with be a further -3.4% or -$4 trillion.

However is vaccine rollout it fast... (next post)...
4) If vaccine rollout is fast, we would likely see an extra +2.2% growth or +$3 trillion boost to world economy.

Vaccine programs are gonna save lives and the economy — but that’s why rollout matters so much. #COVID19

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More from @DrEricDing

3 Dec
⚠️RE-INFECTION CAN HAPPEN TO ANYONE: 26-year old world class cyclist 🚴‍♀️ Gaviria caught #COVID19 in Feb—hospitalized for 2 weeks. Prevailing wisdom suggested he’d at least be immune for foreseeable future. He was wrong. Reinfected 8 months later. Worrisome. wsj.com/articles/the-p… Image
2) “We don’t know how long [immunity] lasts... I wouldn’t be surprised that the COVID immunity also doesn’t last very long when acquired from natural infections” says @VirusesImmunity. Image
3) That said, others point out that vaccines might offer better stronger immunity than natural infection.
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec
BREAKING: Johns Hopkins reports 2,658 new US deaths today from #COVID19 — all time biggest single day death toll ever. 🧵
2) Positivity now increasing again- 10.16% nationwide. Image
3) Let this sink in, even Trump’s WH coronavirus task force is sounding the alarms to states (in a private report naturally). This was leaked to the press today.
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
⚠️HOLY SMOKES. Sen Perdue’s broker bought Pfizer stock in Feb even when Pfizer warned of *bad outlook*. Then he bought more. Perdue basically traded OPPOSITE of Pfizer public warnings!

➡️Then Pfizer announced #COVID19 vaccine plans soon after—coincidence? salon.com/2020/12/02/dav… Image
2) “Perdue made an investment in a company that manufactures personal protective equipment on the same day Perdue attended his first classified pandemic briefing.”

“In a series of transactions in late Feb, Perdue also invested up to $245,000 in the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.”
3) “Though the Pfizer purchase reported previously, the events surrounding it have not:

➡️ One week after those stock purchases, the company publicly announced it would be developing a coronavirus vaccine.”
Read 5 tweets
2 Dec
BEST ECONOMIC STIMULUS? Pay every American $1500 for vaccination—especially for vaccines that need 2 doses. Remember, vaccination programs is what will save lives & economy. $7 Trillion global economic boost if we roll out faster.🧵 @JohnDelaney #COVID19 washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
2) “there’s a historical level of distrust” regarding a covid-19 vaccine among the communities that have been hit hardest by the pandemic.”

The $1500 can be a double win. Stimulus check + helping hard hit communities, altogether.
3) “Money would go into Americans’ pockets just when the U.S. economy can begin fully reopening with a vaccinated population that can go about their daily lives without fear of catching the disease or infecting others.”

@GeorgeTakei also proposed $1000 for vaccination. I agree.
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
CDC: Quarantines to cut from 14 to 10 or 7 days. I’m happy in some ways, but worried in others. Discontinuing quarantine after 7 days (w/ neg test), the “residual post-quarantine transmission risk” is about 5%, dropping to 1% for quarantine for 10 days. 🧵 washingtonpost.com/health/cdc-qua…
2) There is currently a large psychological toil to quarantine of course, and a huge problem w/ contact tracing given the strong disincentive to comply with tracers. Shorter quarantine lowers barriers for tracing compliance of course, which will help. But #COVID19 risk trade off.
3) To be clear, The 14-day quarantine recommendation from CDC remains in effect, but the revised guidance offers 2 ways for people to shorten the period. If a community has adequate testing resources, quarantine can end after just 7 days if a person tests negative in final 2 days
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
DEAR REPORTERS—When Donald Trump inevitably brags about the Pfizer #COVID19 vaccine again, remind him it was developed first in Germany 🇩🇪 by scientists of Turkish 🇹🇷 ethnic descent.

And then ask Trump about his damn Muslim ban.
2) Turkey 🇹🇷 is a 99% Muslim country, and while Turkey wasn’t part of the blacklisted nationalities, Trump’s ban affected tons of people living in Turkey, and widely condemned. google.com/amp/s/www.al-m…
3) Who is the Turkish scientist behind BioNTech? 🇹🇷 born immigrant named Ugur Sahin and his wife Özlem Türeci.

A native of Turkey, Ugur Sahin moved to Germany after his father got a job at a Ford factory in Cologne.
statnews.com/2020/11/10/the…
Read 5 tweets

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